Sustainable land use is identified by most stakeholders as a priority for California, i.e., that trade offs between agricultural productivity, environmental quality, and human livelihoods and well-being be assessed for the greatest long-term benefits to society as a whole. A major risk is that sustainability may be lost when climate change and urbanization increase the pressure for short-term financial gain from current agricultural lands, especially given a range of potential scenarios for climate change range between positive to problematic. For this reason, alternate coping strategies must be assessed for their short- and long-term feasibility and sustainability. The immense breadth of commodities produced in California requires that the government expand its focus on policies or programs that support the many aspects of Californian agriculture that may be affected by these changes . Crop insurance premiums will undoubtedly rise for farmers if the insurance industry perceives a threat from climate change in the form of extreme events, such as Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, 2005. At present, practical implications for agriculture are lagging behind the science that is predicting climate change. As pointed out by the World Meteorological Organization , neither farmers nor policy makers have good access to information for decision-making, beyond that offered by general climate forecasts. This is particularly important for repercussions of land use change that will result from the combined effects of urbanization and climate change. Although technological advances have great potential for adaptation , they should be more clearly specified by joint efforts between agriculturalists and economists, so that land use changes are planned rather than reactionary to surprise events. The practicality of moving crops from one area to another area is not simple . Shifts in land-use are not considered a market impact and therefore, are not included in most global models , but they potentially have large economic and environmental effects on people and the resource base in agricultural landscapes. For this reason,hydroponic nft a cautiously optimistic approach would emphasize agricultural research and land use planning that would examine novel scenarios for agriculture to minimize risks, facilitate coping strategies for extreme events, and ensure long-term productivity, perhaps at the expense of short-term financial gains by agricultural producers or urban developers.
The potential impacts of climate change are varied, multifarious and occur across a range of temporal and spatial scales. California is a highly populated state, rapidly growing, with dwindling resources already subject to extensive competition. In the previous sections, though we organized our discussion of climate change impacts into specific categories, it was already evident that many issues crossed over the different categories. In this section, we synthesize some of the issues identified above to demonstrate the interdependence and chain effects associated with different aspects of climate change. by developing several targeted examples of climate change impacts on California agricultural landscapes, as identified in the preceding sections of this report. There are and will be other such interactions, many of which are not yet apparent.Users of agricultural water in the Central Valley are among those most vulnerable to climate change and could be devastated by severely dry forms of climate warming . The allocation of water resources across the state is in part based upon estimates of crop water use efficiency from a limited number of crop species . Urbanization of the Central Valley will place increasing pressure on water resources and reduce their availability to agriculture. Farmers are more likely to be impacted than urban and industrial users, who can pay more for water. Farmers may benefit, however, if climate change results in an increase in water availability at critical times . At present, agriculture represents approximately 7.4% of total Californian employment; however, in the Central Valley it accounts for 25% . Farming is already a precarious occupation for some and challenging resource limitations may be all it takes for some to give into urbanization pressures and sell to developers. The confluence of changing availability of water resources, increasing urbanization, and the high dependence upon agriculture as a source of employment, may lead to disproportionately large effects of climate change upon the Central Valley of California.Increased photo assimilation of C can lead to decreased concentrations of leaf N, soluble protein, and of the carboxylating enzyme, Rubisco, and nitrate reduction may be inhibited at high CO2 concentrations, such that growth is reduced. A reduction in protein and nutrient content of plant tissue may decrease the nutritive value of food for all consumers, including herbivorous pest invertebrate species .
While warming accelerates the life cycles of many invertebrates, and thus negative impacts associated with invertebrate pests , herbivorous invertebrates may actually grow more slowly because their food source is nutrient- and protein-poor. In response, these pests may increase their feeding rates to satisfy their nutritional requirements. Furthermore, decreased plant nutritional status actually decreases resistance of some plants to pathogenic organisms. These examples highlight the importance of exploring multiple effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations on crop growth and pest communities.Temperature influences key developmental stages of many important tree crops , for which California is the country’s sole producer . Decreased chilling can result in late or straggled bloom, decreased fruit set and poor fruit quality . Heat waves may also cause early bolting, or reduce pollination success. Climate warming may lead to faster developmental rates, decreased generation times, and range expansion of some pest invertebrate species . Thus, climate change may have implications for integrated pest management and control of such pests, their natural enemies, control measure and the future climate. In a warmer climate, whereas development of some tree crop species may be slowed, that of their pests may be increased, making these crops highly vulnerable to pest damage. Rapid rates of adaptation to climate change by invertebrates may exceed the slow rate of development of resistant germplasm available to growers, thus further exacerbating this situation.Soil organic matter is an important source of nutrients, especially in organically managed agroecosystems. Under a warming climate the rate of soil organic matter decomposition is predicted to increase . This may lead to enhanced nutrient availability to plants, provided nutrient release and plant demand are temporally synchronous, but may also reduce the efficacy of soil C sequestration . Soil moisture is another key driver of soil organic matter decomposition , whose availability with climate change remains hard to predict. If carbon trading markets develop in California, trade offs between enhanced nutrient supply and decreased carbon sequestration may become significant, especially given the high energy requirements for producing inorganic fertilizers.Beneficial organisms and their processes, e.g., N fixation by symbiotic and free-living rhizobia, are stimulated by elevated CO2. Conversely, ozone exposure reduces plant growth and crop yields, hinders nitrogen-fixation, compromises disease resistance, and increases susceptibility to invertebrate damage. Although ozone is phytotoxic, elevated atmospheric concentrations of CO2 can ameliorate damage caused by O3 in some circumstances. The interacting effect of different climate factors on multi-trophic interactions are uncertain, making species-specific predictions based on single-factor analyses tenuous at best. Ecosystem-context, especially on-farm or in situ studies, and experiments in changing climate scenarios are required.While by no means exhaustive,hydroponic channel the examples developed above are intended to act as stimuli for future research to identify linkages both within and beyond agriculture to understand climate change impacts and plan adaptive strategies.Impacts of climate change, irrespective of scale, land use and sector, will be wide ranging and varied.
Climate change will impact California differently than it will other parts of the United States. National policies may not always be entirely appropriate, easily implemented, or in the best interests of the state. Consequently, impacts and our response must be assessed in the context of climate change impacts and responses both within the US and globally. Furthermore, climate change and its impacts need to be taken in the context of a world that is rapidly changing in many ways. Population growth, urbanization, and shifting patterns of agricultural production, decreased water resource supply and increased competition for those resources are areas of high priority. Recognition of the fact that actions taken now and in the near future will play a critical role in mitigating and minimizing impacts, as well as maintaining flexibility and adaptive capacity, is essential. California agriculture faces serous challenges in the coming century and beyond. Be that as it may, it has shown considerable adaptive capacity in the past, and with the right information and a suitable policy environment and infrastructure, it can continue to do so into the future. California agriculture’s potential as a net mitigator of climate change is substantial, and as such is an avenue worthy of detailed investigation. Impacts of action and inaction in limiting and/or responding to climate change will be felt well into the future. The climate is changing. California agriculture stands to be impacted substantially. The time to act, with well informed, flexible and sustainable approaches, is now.Technological innovation has been identified as one of the important engines for economic development and growth . It is driven through producing knowledge by firms and individuals, which allows them to stay competitive in the market . Since the seminal paper by Griliches , the concept of the knowledge production function has been further developed in theory and applied at national , regional , sectoral , levels, and even using a meta analysis of 15 individual studies . Agriculture is one of the sectors in which innovation has become extremely important due to scarcity of natural resources, such as land and water, and increased demand for food driven by population growth. According to Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations estimates,global population is expected to grow by more than a third, or 2.3 billion people, between 2009 and 2050. Agricultural productivity would have to increase by about 70% to feed the global population of 9.1 billion people over this period. Arable land would need to increase by 70 million ha, with considerable pressure on renewable water resources for irrigation. Efficiency in agricultural practices and resource usage are among the suggested prescriptions to ensure sustainable agricultural production. Sands et al. also predicted net positive improvements in global agricultural production in the year 2050, in a simulated scenario of rising population and low agricultural productivity growth. While such studies are reassuring, it becomes imperative to guarantee continuous research and development in agriculture to sustain the current rate of productivity growth, and to increase it to counter both population growth and natural resource scarcity in the future. Such objectives can be met by proper investment in agricultural R&D and its dissemination to the agricultural producers. A first step is the identification of the process of converting research and dissemination inputs into knowledge used for improvement of food production. Much of the literature reviewed in Section 2 below focuses on knowledge production functions in industrial firms and sectors. Fewer works apply the concept of knowledge production function to agricultural research , and we are not aware of estimation of such function for agricultural extension. Agricultural extension is a public based research and dissemination of knowledge to farmers by universities and/or government agencies. In this paper, we apply the concept of knowledge production function to an agricultural extension system by focusing on research-based agricultural knowledge generated by the University of California Cooperative Extension . This publicly-funded research and extension system has offices across counties within the state of California. We analyze the nature of the input-output relationship between the research inputs invested by UCCE in R&D and outreach, and the knowledge produced and disseminated by UCCE. This paper contributes to the literature in several ways that set it apart from similar endeavors. To our knowledge, this paper is the first to develop a knowledge production function for an agricultural extension system that creates and disseminates knowledge, which is in itself an innovation. Second, it develops a weighted average value of knowledge, including a number of different components of knowledge produced. Third, the paper uses academic publications to measure knowledge produced by extension, as opposed to patents used in measuring knowledge in private sector. Finally, it distinguishes knowledge production across California counties and over time, suggesting relative advantages in knowledge creation by counties with potential implications for public budget allocation.