Farmers did not appear to pay much attention to the geographical average of bTB to guide their purchase

Nevertheless, whilst findings should be interpreted in the context of the game, the context squares played an important role in keeping the game situated within the challenge of bTB. Moreover, participants commented that they found the process enjoyable and a helpful way of talking about cattle purchasing, and it was notable that the game play prompted conversations about why a decision had been taken between participants. Farmers were encouraged to talk through their purchasing decisions as they made their choices and explain their reasons after each purchasing event. Farmers were asked about each of the behavioural interventions during and at the end of the game. These discussions were recorded within Zoom, transcribed and cross-checked with notes taken during the game. Analysis of in-game cattle purchases identified and recorded each factor mentioned by farmers in their explanation of their purchase choice. Similar factors were grouped together and organised into five main categories. Transcripts were analysed thematically within Nvivo to elicit the key similarities between participants in relation to their views of the information provided and the rationales for their purchasing. Overall, the most frequently mentioned factors were the vaccination status of the animal and its status in relation to production diseases other than bTB. When purchase factors are aggregated into categories, the most important factors were related to aspects of the animal on sale and production diseases, followed equally by bTB and management factors. Farmers were particularly heavily swayed by the Johne’s disease2 status of each purchase choice, acting as an anchor or reference point for all other adverts. Around half of all disease factors were specifically about the vaccination status. This suggested that purchasing decisions were not multi-factorial but could be based on one criterion. As Player 3 commented for all his purchases, “Vaccination for major diseases, that’s what I am really looking for”. Years free from bTB was the third most frequently mentioned factor. This is likely to reflect the fact that it featured in every sale advert and suggests that information on bTB at the point of sale may provide a limited cue to some purchasers. Similarly, strawberry gutter system bTB compensation was only ever discussed in relation to adverts where compensation was mentioned.

Whilst the frequency of these factors is likely to be influenced by the information displayed in the adverts, results reflect previous research that has sought to identify the most influential factors in cattle purchasing . Table 3 shows how these factors vary between different purchase scenarios. For replacement dairy cows, production diseases were the most significant factor, followed by animal factors and then bTB. For purchases of calves, bTB was the least important factor, whilst management factors were the most important. For purchases of in-calf heifer calves the most popular factors were related to the animal, whilst bTB related factors were third. In contrast to the purchasing factors, adverts with high bTB ratings were chosen more frequently. In total, 39 in-game purchase choices were made which involved considering adverts with different bTB statuses. Over half of these in-game choices were of cattle with a high bTB rating . Fourteen in-game purchases were of cattle with the lowest bTB status . One further choice was of cattle whose status was on the midpoint and between the lowest and highest options. For all game players, ten consistently chose purchase options with the highest bTB rating, five the lowest, and three chose a range of options.Farmers suggested that the comparison needed more context to be valid: parishes could vary in size and by number of farms. A more reliable and standardised denominator may have more salience. However, discrepancies between parish and herd bTB ratings prompted some farmers to indicate that this was something that they would follow-up with the vendor to get an explanation. 20 of the 37 in-game cattle purchases involved cattle that would receive 100% of statutory compensation if the purchase was subject to a post movement test. Comparing choices made in each scenario reveals that most farmers did not have a preference for higher or lower compensation, five always chose options with higher compensation, and 3 chose options with lower compensation. Of the 18 in-game purchases, only four were of purchase options that had the highest rating or 95% satisfaction. The remainder were purchases of cattle with lower purchaser satisfaction. In scenario 4, the good farmer information featured on half of the purchase choices. Participants chose an advert featuring a good farmer logo in 14 out of 18 purchase choices. Choices were distributed equally between the highest and lowest good farmer ratings .

In reflecting on their purchasing choices and the information that was most salient to them, farmers articulated a purchasing strategy best described as ‘fitting the system’. This strategy aims to fit or match new cattle purchases to the farm system to ensure its continuity. When faced with a range of purchasing options, ‘fitting the system’ therefore acts as a kind of ‘radar’, honing on those factors that are most pertinent to the system. In-game purchases reflected the need to match systems in a number of ways. For dairy cows, players commented that cows that were cubicle trained were preferred. Information on what cows were being fed was not contained in any adverts, but players suggested that they would want to know that information to ensure a match to their own systems when possible. For calves, Player 16 chose advert 2, justifying the purchase because from the advert, it appeared that the ‘set up was very similar to what we’ve got in terms of the conditions, the vaccinations and the colostrum management’. The importance of a similar setup was to minimise the stress placed upon animals when they are moved and for them to have similar levels of immunity, so that they are not susceptible to illness. Whilst fitting the system provided an overall framework for cattle purchasing, dimensions of good farming were important in shaping how decisions were made. The challenges of fitting the system meant that trust and reliability in the seller became key factors in deciding what to buy. This was evident when farmers were asked to choose between an agent supplying cattle or buying from their neighbour. In this scenario, farmers highlighted the importance of local knowledge. For example, Player 3 commented that, “if it’s the same cow then you go for the neighbour, you know more stuff from driving past”. Similarly, Player 12 suggested that they “would walk away [from the dealer] and look at the neighbours’ [cows] because we know their farming system and they are in tune with what we are doing”. Other dimensions of local knowledge included the ability to draw on vets’ knowledge and their connections with other vets. Player 9, for example, suggested that their vet could speak to the vendor’s vet to “get into the nitty gritty and find out why the animals are on sale”. The effect of providing information on the good farming status of the vendor had a mixed effect. Firstly, purchase choices with high good farmer scores were not widely chosen, indicating that other systemic factors took priority. Nevertheless, farmers reacted positively to this rating, comparing it to ‘Amazon-style’ ratings and demonstrating the face-validity of this good farming metric. However, whilst farmers thought the principle of articulating vendors’ qualities in this way was good, it prompted further questions about what precisely the rating would mean, who would organise it, and how reliable it could be. Satisfaction of previous sales was generally seen as appropriate, but there were concerns about how easily this could be manipulated by ‘fake’ or misleading reviews arising from a genuine mistake by the vendor or purchaser.

Similarly, farmers were concerned about the ability to compare between vendors if one had fewer sales than the other. However, it was not always easy to elicit from the pictures the quality of the animal, farmer or farm, hydroponic fodder system prompting players to comment that they would prefer to be able to visit the farm. This offered farmers to gauge the trustworthiness and reputation of the vendor by being able to ask additional questions and determine from their answers whether they were ‘good farmers’ or not. This could include, for example, vendors’ knowledge of the animal’s history, and the records they keep. In this sense, purchases would partly be based on the farmer and the farm. Farmers commented that they would like to see that the farm was clean and tidy, the housing was of good quality and that the vendor had the ‘right’ attitude. Secondly, the challenges of ‘fitting the system’ also impacted upon the relevance of bTB information and its ability to reflect good farming. Whilst farmers generally preferred high status bTB cattle, their choices reflected their attempts to match cattle to their own circumstances based from other information available. In general, farmers valued purchases with a higher number of years bTB free. However, they also viewed the bTB test as an indication that an animal was ‘saleable’ and there was no real consensus on the threshold of what constituted a ‘safe’ herd. Five or more years was generally seen as good, although some farmers suggested lower. In each case, however, the scarcity of available cattle with high bTB status meant that a better guide was to buy no lower than their current status. The significance of bTB varied between purchase types and each players’ experience of bTB. Where farmers had experienced many outbreaks and farmed in expectation of an outbreak, information on bTB was less important. This reflects fatalistic attitudes towards bTB described in Enticott . However, where players had experienced a recent bTB outbreak, which had caused significant farm management problems, information about bTB was more important. Information on bTB was more likely to be salient when it was timely: farmers who were restocking following a bTB incident particularly valued this information. However, it was not the only factor: Player 9, for example, suggested bTB accounted for 50% of the purchase decision, and other factors could over-ride its significance. In this sense, fitting the system could reflect the wider epidemiological picture surrounding the farm. For example, Player 9 commented that “the closer geographically you are then closer to the same TB situation, [its best to] stick with the problems you know”.

However, for some animals, such as calves, some farmers suggested these dimensions of local fit were not important. Player 2, for example, suggested that “young calves spend so little time in the environment to pick up the disease”. In general, information on bTB appeared to play an ‘arbitrating role’ helping to differentiate between two equally ‘good’ animals for sale. This seemed to be most relevant for compensation incentives. Where adverts appeared to be of similar quality, the potential for additional compensation could sway the decision, all other things being equal . As full compensation was linked to the completion of post-movement testing, the attractiveness of this incentive also depended on the relative ease of completing this test. Where farmers were already frequently testing, the requirement to post-movement test was not considered onerous, meaning animals with full compensation were more attractive. Equally, the extent to which information could arbitrate between two adverts depended on the value of compensation itself. This paper has investigated the salience of different behavioural interventions to influence farmers’ cattle purchasing decisions. In this section, we consider the wider implications of our research. Firstly, the development and use of a scenario-based game has much to offer studies of bio-security and other land-use policy issues. Participants enjoyed playing the game and reported that it helped them to think and talk about their cattle purchasing decisions. Following Quine et al. , our purchasing scenarios were realistic, prompting some participants to reflect on times when the scenarios had played out in real life. Importantly, the use of the game also highlights the need for methodological triangulation when considering the impact of behavioural interventions within farming. Results from the game varied according to methodological and analytical techniques. Based on the analysis of purchasing rationales, results suggested that purchasing was primarily related to production factors. Analysis of the in-game purchases suggested that farmers preferred cattle from farms at a low-risk from bTB.

Economic viability at farm level is a relatively fast and measurable indicator

From a system dynamic perspective this could suggest that the studied farming systems have some buffering capacity to deal with disturbances . An example of this is the farm expansion in area and number of animals in many farming systems that compensates for the loss of farms from the system. From a methodological perspective, it could be argued that the participatory assessment of critical thresholds of challenges is easier than for system functions and resilience attributes. Critical thresholds of challenges are linked to important function indicators and resilience attributes and, therefore, may serve as warnings in the mental models of farming system stakeholders. Based on workshop results and further reflections, interactions between critical thresholds are expected to directly affect the economic viability at farm level, a central critical threshold observed in all farming systems .This gives another argument for monitoring income and other economic indicators in the monitoring frameworks such as the CMEF. The lack of a consistent pattern with regard to environmental thresholds indicates the importance of the local context. In all farming systems, exceeding the critical threshold for economic viability at farm level affects the attractiveness of the sector, the number of farm closures and the availability of farm successors, which in turn in about half of the case studies contribute to lower availability of labor and/or depopulation, which finally can reinforce low economic viability. Hence, a vicious cycle is initiated. This suggests that processes related to the economic and social domain can be driving dynamics of farming systems as well as being reinforced by those dynamics. This potentially can turn a relatively slow social process into a fast process. Social processes are therefore indeed important to monitor . This is already acknowledged in, for instance, in DE-Arable&Mixed, where participants emphasized the attractiveness of the area, hydroponic dutch buckets specifically regarding the development of infrastructure. Through its interactions with processes in other domains and levels, economic performance can be seen as an indirect driver as well as a warning signal for approaching critical thresholds in other domains and levels.

In all farming systems food production was perceived to directly impact economic viability. Therefore, from the perspective of many farming system actors participating in our workshops, focus on food production and economic viability , which are based on relatively fast and measurable processes , seems often more justified than focusing on the more slowly developing social functions such as providing an attractive countryside. However, this may be due to the fact that farmers were in most case studies the best represented stakeholder group, thus possibly masking the voices of other stakeholder groups that were represented less. In any case, social and environmental functions should not be overlooked as a focus on one domain will likely lead to missing important interactions with critical thresholds in other domains . For example, improving economic viability through scale enlargement and intensification, meaning fewer farms and often replacing labor by technology, often leads to a less attractive countryside. Regarding the environmental domain, focus on economic farm performance can even be dangerous as it could ignore externalized risk. For instance in UK-Arable and NL-Arable soil quality, the base of crop production and hence economic performance, was considered close to critical thresholds, while prohibition of certain crop protection products was seen as a challenge for the farming system, rather than the damage these products cause to surrounding ecosystems. Another example of externalized risk in one of our case studies is the pollution of water bodies in IT-Hazelnut. On their own, farmers may initially not have the willingness or capacity to look beyond the farm level. In IT-Hazelnut, farmers, through interaction with environmental actors, are now addressing these environmental issues. Building on this example, we argue that for instance societal dialogues and policy deliberations on improving sustainability and resilience need input from specific social and environmental actors, possibly even from outside the farming system. This seems necessary to counter-balance the bias towards economic performance at farm level by most of the participating farming system actors in most of our workshops. In the more remote case studies, e.g. DE-Arable&Mixed and BGArable, attractiveness of the area seems low anyway. Consequently, improving prices alone, for instance, may not improve the availability of the necessary labor, thus reducing the emphasis on economic performance. Extensive rural development seems necessary to maintain the functioning of these farming systems. Mitter and et al. , based on their mechanistic scenario development approach, expected no or negative developments regarding rural development in all future scenarios of EU agriculture.

The notion that both mechanisms at EU and farming system level are not wired to address rural development, shows how the low attractiveness of an area can persist once it has come about. Avoiding exceedance of critical thresholds without further adaptation or transformation, implies a performance at or below the current low to moderate levels for most system function indicators and resilience attributes . A potential exceedance of a critical threshold in the coming ten years is expected to lead to negative developments for most system function indicators and resilience attributes. Negative developments of function indicators are expected in the economic, social as well as the environmental domain. On average, across all farming systems, we did not observe any differences in the magnitude of the effect between domains for function indicators. This consistent development confirms the idea that the different domains are interacting. The consistent expected developments for function indicators and resilience attributes after exceeding critical thresholds suggest a perceived interaction between them. One could argue that a system needs resources to react to shocks and stresses , especially for adaptation and transformation. These resources can only be adequately realized when there is an enabling environment and when system functions are performing well. The other way around, resilience attributes can be seen as “resources” to support system functions on the way to more sustainability. For instance, existing diversity of activities and farm types makes visible what works in a specific situation, openness of a system helps to timely introduce improved technologies, and connection with actors outside the farming system may help to create the enabling environment for innovations to improve system functioning . Impact of challenges is primarily experienced at the farm level,resulting in the disappearance of farms from the farming system. In multiple case studies , participants indicated that identified critical thresholds would be perceived differently among farmers. As mentioned before, farm closure generally leads to a less attractive countryside, a long-term process that is currently not perceived the most important issue in most studied farming systems, according to stakeholder input. Increasing farm size could be seen as a solution to compensate for the loss of farms and farmers in the farming system. Increasing the farm size is often associated with the advantage of economies of scale. For multiple farming systems in our study , production margins are low, which could further stimulate this thinking. However, from the farm level perspective, beyond a certain size, further economies of scale are not realized in some of the studied farming systems, i.e. there are limits to growth dependent on the rural context. In BE-Dairy, for instance, increasing farm size seems to be limited due to environmental standards. In ES-Sheep, further reduction of the farmer population is perceived to be harming the farming system, e.g. through reduction of facilities such as farmer networks, agricultural research initiatives, etc., but also hospitals, schools, etc. Besides, to further increase farm size, farmers in ES-Sheep depend on extra labor that is not available because of low attractiveness of the countryside, bato bucket while investment in labor saving technology does not pay off with the current market prices.

This is an example of the reflection of Kinzig et al. that a seemingly reversible threshold becomes irreversible because a certain management option to reverse processes is not available anymore. Based on Fig. 1, we argue that this specific example may be true for more farming systems where a lack of labor force is experienced and investment in labor saving technology are not likely to pay off . The importance of the social domain of farming systems makes us argue that indicators in this domain should be monitored. The option for countries in CAP2021-27 to shift 25% of the budget from income support to rural development provides the opportunity to adapt policies and investments to rural development needs. For instance for the more remote farming systems such as DE-Arable&Mixed and BGArable. We argue that a large shift of budget across the two pillars is already an indication of the perceived need to improve rural living conditions and can thus be used for monitoring. Although relating to economic values, the allocation of budget to rural development can thus be seen as the importance that is attributed to support processes in the social domain. Caution is needed however, as Pillar II also supports processes related to the environmental domain. Surveys among experts at national and regional level that record how much of the budget should be shifted from pillar I to II is a further step in assessing the performance of farming systems in the social domain. This implies introducing subjectivity in the CMEF on the evaluation side, while the choice of the parameter is defined objectively, i.e. externally. Jones remarks that objectively defined and subjectively evaluated resilience assessments are relatively robust, easy and quick, while the limitations lay mainly in having to deal with bias, priming and social desirability. Other possibilities for objectively defined and subjectively evaluated indicators may lie in including indicators on living conditions and quality of life in rural areas based on Eurofound studies . These type of indicators also have the advantage of being entirely in the social domain, i.e. they don’t indirectly refer to economic values such as the shift in budget from Pillar I to Pillar II as discussed above.

A common reflection in the discussion section so far is that having adequate system resources seems essential for stimulating system resilience attributes and dealing with challenges. In cases of low farming system resilience, building system resources may initially depend largely on external resources. This implies a role for regional, national and EU government bodies, i.e. a pro-active role for actors in the institutional domain outside the farming system. Given the tendency to focus on economic performance at farm level, external resources in the form of economic subsidies should be increasingly conditional regarding environmental and social functioning of the farming system. The emphasis on resources for building resilience is also acknowledged in several recent resilience frameworks , for instance with regard to knowledge and innovation systems . To elaborate on the example of AKIS, we argue that, rather than only monitoring and evaluating the amount of budget and the number of people that benefit from improved AKIS , also the amount of this resource and stakeholders’ access to it should be known and evaluated regularly. Similarly, other social and institutional resources need to be monitored next to economic and environmental resources. Given the challenges regarding assessing and discussing critical thresholds in workshops , all identified critical thresholds could be seen as “Thresholds of potential concern” . In our case these TPCs would express the concerns of a selection of farming system stakeholders. TPCs can be seen as a set of evolving management goals that are aimed at avoiding critical thresholds that are expected, e.g. from experiences in other systems, but are not known. In case thresholds are considered beforehand as TPC’s, Q-methodology may be an interesting participatory method to define which TPC deserves most priority. Estimating main functions of a system by assessing critical thresholds as TPCs, reduces the presence of clear sustainability goals. This makes the threshold assessment less dependent on externally determined values and criteria than most sustainability assessments . Implicitly, the goal is to avoid a decline in sustainability and resilience levels of the current system, which may give the participating system actors the trust to provide details, expose interrelatedness between sustainability domains, and also come up with solutions. Regarding the latter, it should be noted that avoiding exceedance of critical thresholds does not automatically imply that a system is steering away from mediocre performance.

Agriculture and farming don’t figure much in the IoP literature

Although making a success of smart farming is already tricky and adding new complications might appear unhelpful, the task must be to recognize and confront the complexities, rather than sidestep or ignore them. The question is how to construct smart farming innovation processes that yield more effective configurations?To avoid producing misconfigured innovations, smart farming requires a reimagined innovation process. I argue the challenge is to imagine and realize an innovation process that can yield ‘emancipatory smart farming.’ Some clues of what such an innovation process might entail are provided by research on the possibilities of pursuing ‘responsible research and innovation’ in smart farming. With a focus on anticipation, inclusion, reflexivity, and responsiveness , RRI tries to respond to the new “socio-ethical dilemmas” called forth by contemporary technological developments. For example, as stated by Rose and Chilvers , “[i]n the rush to embrace smart agri-tech, we are in danger of forgetting the wider network of other innovations that play an important role, but may also affect societies in different ways” . One focal point of RRI is therefore “to stage reasoned deliberations on technological needs and concerns between historically marginalized food system actors and prominent decision makers in government” . An ambition is that RRI might become “a rubric for guiding innovation toward socially and ethically acceptable ends” . At issue is examining “interrelations between multiple co-existing innovations in sustainable agriculture [to] promote the cultivation of distributed responsibilities across wider innovation ecologies” . In the New Zealand dairy sector, for instance, RRI has recognized that smart farming will yield “adapted advisory structures, potentially leading to displaced farm staff and service providers” . Moreover, shifts associated with smart farming technologies might have a “major impact on the cultural fabric of what it means to be a farmer,” in part because they can entail “detailed monitoring by agricultural equipment makers, input suppliers, u planting gutter processors and retailers” . There are reasons to applaud RRI. It signals at least an interest in trying to integrate societal concerns in technical developments; and opens avenues for new engagements between groups that might not otherwise interact.

It is a close approximation of what an appropriate topological repertoire might look like because it emphasizes the visibility of stakeholders, actors, and material realities that otherwise can be marginalized or ignored. However, RRI in smart farming still fails to produce adequate configurations. It operates via a misplaced insistence that agricultural innovation can successfully reconfigure sociotechnical relations in one domain, without also pursuing systemic or structural change. In short, it is necessary to continue insisting on the need for reimagined smart farming innovation processes that work to sidestep the misconfigured innovations evident in today’s smart farming developments. A pertinent example of what might be possible here is the development of farm OS, which draws on activist engagements and explores how smart technologies can empower communities, through actions of solidarity and co-learning . The software helps farmers record, plan, and manage their operations. It is open-source, produced under a general public license, and is easily hackable, in contrast to proprietary farm management software. Farmers can integrate diverse tools, such as drones for capturing aerial imagery or sensors to record temperatures, and thereby retain latitude to configure their operations in astute ways. In its effort to unsettle established smart farming structures and enable farmers to take back control over the software and data they produce, farmOS resembles other efforts to hack and repair farm technologies . It also reflects a much wider societal shift whereby activists, community groups, or others in civil society embrace contemporary technologies and take advantage of the emergent affordances to pursue “productive resistance” . A key dynamic of digital life today is growing realization that ‘smart’ use of software platforms requires re-platformizing society so urban citizens as much as rural farmers can take advantage of technological affordances without reproducing a platform economy dominated by a few enormous firms . It is therefore illuminating that farmOS is part of a new partnership called Open TEAM that aims to create a platform to facilitate “soil health management for farms of all scales, geographies and production systems” . There is scope today for farmers and connected others to overcome the problems of ‘actually existing’ smart farming and the misconfigured innovations it churns out. ise from new possibilities on the technological horizon. Hitherto, a technical limitation on smart farming developments pertains to the uneven roll-out of high-speed internet access between urban and rural areas . But there is now evidence that 5G networking technologies using TV White Space or ‘frugal 5G’ could be a ‘game changer’ for rural Internet access. If there is to be a ‘what next?’ of smart farming, it will build on what we find actually existing today to create new possibilities for embedding food production within the wider ‘planetary cognitive ecology’ , with unpredictable outcomes.

One relevant near-term scenario emerges from research on the ‘internet of people’ , a term used by computer science researchers with a view to building on and improving the relatively passive ‘internet of things.’ In the “Next Generation Internet” they are exploring, the internet of things is not swept away but rather a “new reference architecture” is carefully-crafted onto it with a view to overcoming problematic features of the “current-Internet data-management paradigm [such as] constant monitoring of users’ behavior by global platforms to provide to them ‘navigation’ and filtering services to find relevant data embedded in the huge amount of available data” . The overall design calls for a “human-centric perspective” at the scale of implementation and a novel “data-management Internet paradigm” in which devices are proxies of humans and constantly exist in context and operate in self-organizing networks that create new efficiencies because the need for human decisions is minimized. Significant features include use of new 5G capabilities that enable relatively autonomous ‘device-to-device’ communications across ‘pervasive communities’ of connected users. Per an IoP manifesto , devices are designed to ‘be social,’ ‘be personalized,’ ‘be proactive,’ and ‘be predictable.’ The underlying notion is that the IoP will use new arrangements and practices to engender economic efficiencies and positive social impacts. But there is every reason to expect the types of behaviours and interactions proposed by this line of research to impact on ‘smart farming’ practices. Consider a hypothetical example of how the IoP might operate, which, in the absence of available real-world examples to use, I adapt from contributions to the IoP literature : Maxine is a dairy farmer and cheese producer. Her cheese sales are disappointing. She’s confused and worried. She searches online for new recipes. Her phone knows a new recipe or idea is needed [‘be personalized’]. It shares this info with devices belonging to Maxine’s friends [’be social’]. At a social event soon thereafter, a phone belonging to a friend of Maxine overhears2 someone called Sandy say that Maxine’s cheese reminds them of another cheese they ate on holiday in Holland. It sends Maxine’s device a message along these lines [’be social’]; shares the ingredients and recipe of the Dutch cheese [’be predictable’]; and suggests a tweaked production process [’be proactive’]. Maxine’s device also communicates with quasi-autonomous devices in the cheese cellar [’be social’] to produce a new test batch. Some months later, Maxine has produced the new cheese product. Her device then detects that Sandy will be nearby soon [’be social’] and arranges for a sample pack to be delivered to her [’be proactive’]. At the same time, Maxine’s phone arranges for sample packs to be sent to other people who match Sandy’s sociological profile [’be proactive’]. Their devices respond to say they like Maxine’s new cheese and Maxine’s phone sends them discount coupons for their next purchase [’be predictable’]. Today’s smart farming developments lay the ground for emerging operations in the IoP: devices such as phones, or sensors to measure soil moisture or temperatures, are now operating on farms all over the world; software platforms are integrating actions, collecting and analysing data, and providing pertinent information to guide decisions; and autonomous machines are already in action.

All of these arrangements of devices and sensors share information according to protocols and standards worked out in the context of today’s technological limits and possibilities. The scene is therefore set for new rounds of investment in technologies that adapt architectures and yield realities like those posed above. As such, tomorrow’s protocols and possibilities will build on the normality of devices and sensors contributing to on-farm intelligence and efficiency but with a view to delivering results impossible hitherto. As suggested by Maxine’s case, then, smart farming in the IoP still relies on human intelligence but the abilities of her farm operation to survive is upgraded and amplified by protocols and standards that grant proxy devices autonomy and intelligence to proactively prompt new connectivities and relations. Maxine’s relations with others are mediated, filtered, and ranked; her digital life draws on new affordances developing dynamically within pervasive communities operating across a proactive internet. Beyond notions of the ‘nanny state’ infusing debates about communitarian governmental action, the IoP scenario is more akin to people living with numerous devices acting like ‘guardian angels,’ planting gutter with autonomous device-to-device decision making based on assumptions about the needs and possibly the desires of the individuals ‘they’ oversee. Maxine may be conscious of decisions she makes to engage the internet and might even understand or be sent information about autonomous device-to-device activities pinging messages and moving data according to underlying protocols; but much of her social life in the IoP also unfolds without her active participation. It is a new rural scene; an image of a different society from today’s, not least because it suggests the arrival of a new cognitive ecology underpinned and driven by AI, with social relations played out in numerous colliding “regions of technical autonomy” . Taking stock of the IoP scenario, there is clearly a strong possibility that smart farming in this forthcoming context will unfold via further rounds of misconfigured innovations. The dynamics of capitalist accumulation will no doubt pervade the design of protocols, devices, and services. Per the orientation of practices within so-called “surveillance capitalism” , tech firms such as Google or Amazon – as well as agri-TNCs, with their new data science profiles – will explore opportunities in the IoP to construct a more predictable world. Their challenge will be trying to contain the latent capacities and chaos of human and non-human action within tight profitable parameters; to thereby reduce the scope for uncertainty and contingency to interrupt flows of decisions informed by populations of sensors laid out and communicating with each other according to algorithmic models of society.

However, the objective reality of space is that no computational architecture can make sufficient calculations to overcome the inherent and pervasive “chance of space” . Maxine operates in a contingency-laden context before any IoP devices arrive on the scene. What happens with digital technologies in general, and the IoP in particular, is simply now that “the chance of space swells” . In the IoP, Maxine engages a new rural scene that amplifies chaos with unpredictable outcomes. As such, unexpected dynamics might come to the fore. The distinction here is between the architecture of digital life and the actual lived experience of digital subjects, which always entails “intersections and recursive relationships” playing out via “iterative interplays” . As evidence from research on digital worlds demonstrates – and as I have discussed via reference to developments such as farmOS – contemporary and emerging digital devices and services provide affordances for subjects to use technology in unexpected ways, including for the sake of resisting oppressive social formations. In rural space, smart farming seen through the lens of IoP research might place new value on intelligent, efficient, and even to some extent ruthless practices that squeeze as much profit from land and labour. Nevertheless, and emphatically, outcomes of the technological shifts at play here remain unwritten. Like farmOS or other efforts to re-imagine smart farming technologies, the IoP might create scope for users to create new forms of cooperation, reciprocity, and solidarity. There is significant scope for further investigation into this emerging scene.

We find that several estimates of the effect of the fixed-price contract on rice area are no longer significant

Even when we disaggregate the contract treatment by contract attributes, there is little evidence of significant differences. Yet, the plethora of null results arising from the heterogeneity analysis is informative regarding both the contracts offered to participants in the experiment and the larger non-experimental literature as a whole. The contracts offered by ESOP appear to  benefit households equally. The contracts did not disadvantage female headed households or older farmers. Nor did they advantage farmers with more experience or those who participated in training programs or were members of local farm associations. This uniformity is encouraging regarding the equity and achievability of the contracting terms that ESOP offers. In regards to the larger literature on the heterogeneous effects of contract farming, endogenous matching between principals and agents is extremely difficult to control in non-experimental settings . It may be the case that some non-experimental studies have confounded heterogeneity in contract outcomes with heterogeneity in contract participation.The final component of our analysis is to explore the robustness of our primary results to different samples, different inference, and different specifications. Table 9 summarizes these robustness checks and their results. The table also points to where in the Appendix the complete results for each check can be found. Our first check is whether our inference is robust when we account for attrition. Since some differences do exist between attritors and nonattritors in our sample, we calculate bounds for our estimates following Lee and accounting for the stratified and clustered design of the experiment. All point estimates for the treatment effect are bounded away from zero .

These results suggest that any potential bias introduced by differences between attriting farmers and returning farmers is small relative to our estimated effect sizes. Next, we check whether our inference is robust to corrections that account for testing multiple hypotheses. We adjust p-values for the FWER using the Bonferroni , Holm and List et al. correction, rolling bench along with adjusting for the FDR using Anderson sharpened q-values. Corrections for our main results are in Table B6 and Table B8 in the Appendix. In general, there is no change in significance from any of these corrections. In cases where our point estimates are significant, they remain significant when accounting for multiple hypothesis testing. Given the grouped nature of the randomization, leaving us with 107 treatment units, it is possible that asymptotic inference is unreliable. As an alternative method for interrogating the robustness of our results, we implement a randomization inference procedure outlined in Heβ . Where classical inference assumes the treatment is fixed and the sample is a random draw, randomization inference assumes the sample is fixed and the assignment to treatment is random. For each ANCOVA regression with covariates, we randomly permute the treatment indicator 5000 times, accounting for the stratified and clustered design of the experiment, which allows us to build a reference sample under the sharp null hypothesis of no treatment effect. We can then compare the distribution of outcomes when the hypothetical treatment effect is zero with the observed treatment effect and calculate p-values. Table B6 and Table B7 in the Appendix present p-values from the analytical standard errors presented in the body of the paper along with p-values calculated from the randomization inference procedure. Similar to our adjustments for attrition and multiple hypothesis testing, randomization inference does not move our results from significant to not significant for the pooled treatment. When it comes to the treatment effects for each contract type, there is a change in the effect of T1 on rice area, which is no longer significant. Besides this case, all other significant treatment effects remain significant, though at reduced levels.

Our next two checks are concerned with the robustness of our results to difference specifications. In Table 6 we presented results from regressions which included indicators for each treatment. We now conduct a pairwise comparison of each treatment against the control .Additionally, the OLS estimate without covariates of the effect of T1 on income per capita is no longer significant. There is no change in significance for any of the other variables and specifications. In Table 7 we presented Bonferroni-adjusted Wald tests comparing co-efficient sizes across treatments. We can make this same comparison in a pairwise fashion, directly testing T2 against T1, T3 against T1, and T3 against T2 . Any differences that were significant using the Wald test remain significant in the pairwise comparisons. However, we find that three cases where the Wald test failed to reject the null can be rejected in a pairwise comparison. Rice area for those in T2 is significantly less than T1 and income per capita is significantly larger for those in T3 compared to both T2 and T1. In each of these cases the p-value of the Wald test fell just below the 90 percent critical value and the switch to a direct comparison increases the precision of the estimates. Our final robustness check is to test our results using alternative measures of welfare. First, we disaggregate income into rice income, farm income other than from rice, and non-farm income. This allows us to determine if households are reallocating effort away from other sources of income and towards rice production. Tables B16 and B17 in the Appendix present results for the pooled treatment and each treatment arm. The results are consistent across tables: the treatment increases rice income but does not have a significant effect on other income sources. However, there is a small but insignificant negative effect on non-rice farm income. Despite this, it appears that contract farming increases household income without reducing other sources of income. Second, since income is notoriously difficult to measure accurately, we estimate treatment effects on two food security metrics.

The first is the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale and the second is the Food Consumption Score . The HFIAS measures a household’s feelings and perceptions of food insecurity and is the preferred measure of USAID. The FCS measures how often a household consumes food items in different food groups and is the preferred measure of the World Food Programme.Our results are generally robust to these alternative welfare measures . Farming contracts increase the FCS as do all three individual contracts. However, there is little evidence that farming contracts reduce the HFIAS. While some of the treatment effects on HFIAS are significant, they tend not to be robust to adjustments accounting for multiple hypothesis testing or attrition. Third, we estimate treatment effects on a back-of-the-envelope calculation of profits from rice production.Our data contains detailed inputs on rice production, including labor time. However, it lacks detailed price data on hired and household wages as well as input data on total farm production. Despite these limitations in the data, and the long-standing problem of valuing family labor, we can compute a rough estimate of profits earned from rice production. We use three different wages to calculate a range of rice profits. Based on data from ESOP, we calculate profits at a “low wage rate” of 1500 CFA per day and a “high wage rate” of 2000 CFA per day. We also calculate profit using self-reported “cost of labor” for rice production. Using these three sources to value both hired and family labor, we can create a range of back-of-the envelope calculations for rice profits per hectare. As can be seen in Tables B20 and B21 in the Appendix, farm contracts increase rice profits when self-reported labor is used but have no significant effect when we use the low and high wage data from ESOP. We believe that the lack of impact on profit using ESOP-reported wages is due to a lack of precision in calculated profit, and, as a result, a lack of precision in estimates. Using self-reported costs to calculate wage rates, standard errors on estimates are always below 1.0. However, standard errors on estimates using ESOP data are frequently above 2.0. We conclude that there is suggestive, though far from conclusive, evidence that the contracts did in fact increase profits.The results from our field experiment present consistent evidence regarding the impact of contract farming, though somewhat unexpected insights regarding the impact of different contract attributes. Participation in contract farming, or at least the contracts ESOP offered to rice farmers in our study, has a positive and significant impact on area planted, yield, market participation, and income. Obviously, this should not be interpreted as definitive evidence that all contract farming is beneficial to the agent, as contract terms will vary based on context, grow table hydroponic bargaining power, and the objective function of the principal. While the overall positive effect of a farm contract was expected, we did not anticipate some of the differences in outcomes across contract type.

In particular, contracts that provide extension training seemed to add no value above and beyond the fixed-price contract. Evidence from comparisons in Table 6 and our robustness checks all show that the provision of extension training frequently resulted in lower outcomes relative to the other contracts. Similarly, the estimates of treatment effects on input use does not reveal substantial differences between contracts that provided extension services and the contract that did not. Three factors may explain these results. First, extension training is expected to increase technical efficiency. However, many smallholder farmers are resource-poor and may be unable to apply the knowledge they have gained. For instance, training regarding best practices for the application of fertilizer when the farmer cannot afford to buy the fertilizer is time ill spent. Second, the farmers in our experiment had very basic levels of education. The extension training developed with ESOP may have been pitched at too high a level to be effective. Third, it may be the case that the extension training was too broad. Recent RCT evidence from Kenya and Nigeria has shown that significant improvements can be made to agricultural outcomes when targeted or personalized advice is offered . By comparison, broad or generalized recommendations typically provide no value added to farmers. That extension training was ineffective in our study is disappointing but not abnormal. Feder et al. , Bellemare and Jones and Kondylis all provide evidence that extension services in developing countries often prove ineffective in producing positive and significant outcomes for smallholder farmers. Furthermore, in many developing countries, extension services focus more on cash crops , neglecting staple food crops such as rice . While extension training proved to provide little added value, the simple fixed-price contracts turned out to produce particularly large impacts. Across multiple comparison groups, the fixed-price contract resulted in outcomes statistically indistinguishable from the contract that added input loans and extension training to the price guarantee. Focusing on the results of the Wald tests in Table 7, the contract that only offered a fixed price had similar effect sizes for area planted, yields, and income relative to the contract that added extension services and input loans. Market participation was the only outcome variable where the fixed price contract failed to meet or exceed the effect size of one or more of the other contracts. This result is striking in its simplicity and enormously encouraging in its implications for contract farming and rural transformation. It implies that the primary issue facing these farmers is output price risk. Though our experimental design does not allow for a clean test of the effect of eliminating price risk, since all contracts include non-price attributes, the preponderance of evidence suggests that providing a contract that eliminates price risk allows farmers to, on their own, make the necessarily investment to increase their rice area, increase their productivity, and, by selling more rice into the market, increase their income. Our results regarding the role of output price risk closely align with evidence presented in Michelson et al. and Michelson regarding contract farming schemes in Nicaragua. There the authors study contracts offered by Walmart and other supermarkets to purchase produce from smallholder farmers. They find that farmers who receive contracts isolating them from fluctuations in out price take on more credit, farm more intensively, produce more, and earn a higher income.

The proposed model helps to identify the insects as well as suggest Pesticides for the same

Various elements must be considered when estimating the cost of a crop. It divides agricultural costs into five categories and provides calculations for each. It also gives examples of how to figure out how much a crop cost. It is a theoretical article that always guide the implementation of estimating the cost of cultivation. This theoretical study was used in the proposed model to calculate the cost of cultivation. It was very helpful as it provided elementary description to calculate the costs for cultivation. The formulas proposed in this study was used in the proposed system to estimate the costs till the year 2028. From 2004 to 2015, the goal of this research is to evaluate the gap between various costs and gross value of output , as well as the trends of input utilization and critical factors for gross value of output of gram crop across top production states. The findings demonstrate so after 2009–2010, all states’ GVO and overall costs increased significantly. The commencement of the Government of India’s agricultural waiver scheme in 2008–2009 was found to be the cause of a large increase in operational costs from 2009 to 2010. It was also obvious that the compound annual growth rate was larger in 2009–2010 than in 2014–2015 when comparing 2004–2005 to 2007–2008. Profit margins were high in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, indicating a cost-cutting trend. This work provided a comparative study about the costs between different states of India. The proposed work has used Ensemble regression algorithms that is used to forecast the costs till 2028. It provides a comparative study of a crop for a specific state from 2010– 2028. Hence the user would be able to identify the trends of costs from the year 2010–2028.

The forecasting is explicitly applied on the India’s cost of cultivation survey data from 2010–2018. This provides an elaborative view of operational cost,led grow lights fixed cost, total cost, Cost Concepts were displayed in form of a graph for better understanding of the trends of the costs. Agriculture is currently a dominant use of the land and a major driver of environmental change and thus agricultural landscapes are key to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals , such as food security and environmental sustainability . As social-ecological systems, agricultural landscapes reflect the intertwined interaction between humans and nature through time . The contribution of agricultural landscapes to society goes beyond provisioning ecosystem services . Farmlands can contribute with a wide range of other key ecosystem services to society such as regulating and cultural , while providing habitat for biodiversity . However, the social-ecological outcomes of farmlands relate to the characteristics of supporting landscapes, which ultimately reflect the management practices, i.e. farming systems prevailing at the landscape level . Distinct farming systems are characterized by different field- and farm-level agricultural practices, reflecting farmers’ decisions on crop selection, livestock management and/or the maintenance of non-crop elements . Managed under intensive FS, agricultural landscapes contribute mainly to food and fibre production, but at high costs for the natural environment . Agricultural intensification has been pinpointed as major driver of land use change, causing landscape homogenization, habitat degradation and loss, and the decline of species of conservation interest . Conversely, farmlands managed under low-intensive farming systems, especially those designated in Europe as High Nature Value farmlands , have been highlighted for contributing to a wide range of ecosystem services, beyond support to biodiversity .

Characterized by low levels of agrochemical inputs and livestock stoking, minimal mechanization and the rotational use of the land, HNV farming systems maximize the use of territorial resources for agricultural production, while promoting landscape level heterogeneity. Therefore, the maintenance of HNV farming systems has been related to the occurrence of species and/or habitats, among which some of conservation concern . The European Union Common Agricultural Policy has been recognizing the role of agricultural landscapes to meet societal environmental concerns, namely by explicitly defining specific practices that farmers’ should observe or by supporting low intensity FS fostering the nature value of agricultural landscapes . Overall, CAP instruments align with other EU policy instruments such as Nature Directives and the EU Biodiversity Strategy, which, among other objectives, aim to include agricultural areas under high-diversity landscape features and organic farming management through uptaking agro-ecological practices for a positive contribution of agriculture to biodiversity and ecosystem services . Still, while the link between agriculture and biodiversity and ecosystem services has been widely described, data-driven research assessing such relationship at the landscape level across taxonomic groups and services is still scarce. Data availability is a major limitation to advance knowledge on how farming systems shape biodiversity and ecosystem services at the landscape level . The Integrated Administration and Control System database, managed by EU Member States paying agencies to monitor and control CAP payments, has been highlighted as a potential source of information on farmers’ practices at the farm-level . Coupled with the Land Parcel Information System , a spatially-explicit identification system for agricultural plots, IACS provide a high spatial and temporal resolution dataset integrating several dimensions of agricultural management, such livestock stocking, crops and land use . The value of IACS goes beyond the support to assess and monitor the impacts of CAP instruments. This comprehensive source of high-resolution data has been increasingly highlighted for its potential to support data-driven research in agricultural landscapes . Examples include mapping HNVf , analysis of crop and landscape diversity , land use change , definition and analysis of farming systems , or modelling exercises to assess the impacts of policies on FS and biodiversity . However, studies using this detailed source of data reflecting agricultural management have seldom been performed to assess and monitor patterns of biodiversity and the delivery of ecosystem services at the landscape level. Farming systems conceptual and methodological approaches have been pointed as suitable tools to explore the links between farmers’ practices and biodiversity and ecosystem services .

Considering farms as systems and units of analysis, a FS includes a set of farms sharing similar characteristics, namely in what concerns land type, labor and means of production, reflected in cropping and livestock subsystems combinations and underlying management decisions such as livestock rates and crop types, or the use of fertilizers. Such characteristics result from farmers’ decisions, which are jointly driven by policies , socio-economic factors and by biophysical conditions . Ultimately, farmers’ decisions are reflected as the dominance of a given farming system at the landscape level . Thus, exploring the links between FS and biodiversity and ecosystem services is essential to improve our understanding on the impacts of agriculture on biodiversity in landscapes under different agricultural management. In this research, we contribute to advance the state-of-the-art, by exploring the link between FS and patterns of biodiversity at the landscape level. To do that, we used IACS data to identify and characterize the spatial distribution of farming systems in a region in NW Spain and explored the relationships between the composition of FS, and species and habitats richness. More specifically, we aimed to answer the following research questions: Can IACS be used to map and characterize different farming systems at the landscape-level? and, Is the occurrence of specific FS linked with higher levels of biodiversity? Results of the analysis between FS and targeted biodiversity indicators are discussed for the Galician region, and implications drawn with respect to the assessment and monitoring of patterns of biodiversity in agricultural landscapes, including High Nature Value farmlands, across the EU. Our study area covers Galicia, an administrative NUTS 2 region located in North-western Spain, between 41◦ N and 44◦ N latitude, and, 9.5◦ W and 6.5◦ W longitude with a total area of 29,575 km2 . Most of the region is characterized by an oceanic/dry summer climate and is located in the Atlantic biogeographical region, with only a small area located in the south-east Galicia integrated in the Mediterranean region. Characterized by an elevation ranging from sea level to ~2100 m in the western mountains and a hilly topography, roughly 36% of Galician municipalities have been declared as less-favoured areas according to the Council Directive 75/268/EEC . The biophysical characteristics and historical uses of the land of Galicia are reflected in a considerable natural capital, recognized by the designation of several Natura 2000 areas, including 16 Special Protection Areas and 59 Special Areas of Conservation . SPAs cover 101,135 ha and SACs 374,435 ha, corresponding to 3.4% and 12.6% of all the area, respectively. For the last half of the twentieth century, Galicia underwent a polarization between intensification of agriculture and forest activities in the best soils and marginalization of remote, vertical grow system mountainous areas, following the trends observed at the EU scale .

The specialization of agriculture targeted mainly dairy production, while in the forest sector focused fast growing species for timber. Thus, despite representing less than 6% of total area in Spain, Galicia currently accounts for about 40% of dairy and 50% of timber production in the country. Utilized agricultural area occupies about 30% of total area of the region. Holdings are mostly small family farms, considerably smaller than the Spanish average . Moreover, there is a large fragmentation of land property , implying that most farmers manage a rather high number of different plots of land. Thus, despite a trend for agricultural intensification along the last decades, the relatively small scale of farming units and the fragmentation of farm holdings in numerous plots of land contribute to the complexity and heterogeneity of the landscape. Together with a relatively high density of linear landscape elements, these aspects contribute to a High Nature Value linked to the occurrence of cultural landscapes in the area . IACS and LPIS data on farm-level management was provided by the regional managing authority . Linked to LPIS, IACS provides spatially-explicit information on the geographic location, area and crops produced and the number and type of livestock for all agricultural plots managed by Galician farmers’ and declared under the CAP payments. For this study, the dataset contained information for the year 2015 about 1,190,714 parcels, declared by 33, 009 farms . To assure statistical confidentiality, all farms in the dataset are identified by a randomly generated code and as no relation to any farm registration codes. Information about the distribution of EU Habitats of Community Interest in the region was derived from data available from the previous work of Ramil-Rego et al. . This data is the most up-to-date data source regarding the diagnosis, description and distribution of habitat types listed in Annex I of the Habitats Directive for the study area. Moreover, it constitutes the source of data for the Galician Natura 2000 sites regional Management Plan , and for the Standard Data Forms of the designated SACs in the region. While detailed habitat mapping has been carried out exclusively for Natura 2000 sites and their surroundings, records for the presence/absence of habitats in a 10 × 10 km UTM grid were available for the whole region from the same project. Here, we considered all terrestrial Annex I habitats listed for the study area , assuming that agricultural practices may have direct and indirect impacts on their occurrence at the landscape level. We used this information to calculate the total number of Annex I habitats and the total number of priority habitats recorded per 10 × 10 km grid cell . The diversity of species of conservation interest was derived from the Biodiversity Data Bank maintained by the Institute of Agrarian Biodiversity and Rural Development of the University of Santiago de Compostela. This data bank is the most updated source regarding species occurrence for Galicia, and includes information about the suitable habitats for each species, according to the methodology proposed by Ramil Rego et al. . Species of conservation interest were selected . Then, and converging with the objectives of our research, we selected only protected species associated with agro-ecosystems . Our final dataset included 119 protected species, from which 8 plants, 1 invertebrate, 11 amphibians, 13 reptiles, 80 birds, and 6 mammals . While unbalanced, the final set of species reflects the uneven number of species of conservation interest listed across the targeted taxonomic groups for the study area .

Plant species growing in pastures also influence dietary selections made by grazing ruminants

In tropical grasslands, moderate grazing led to soil carbon storage and resulted in greater productivity and soil water-holding capacity, potentially enhancing grassland resilience to climate change . Mixed grazing of different livestock species at moderate levels promoted higher diversity and ecosystem multi-functionality . Soussana et al. , who accounted for greenhouse gas budgets at nine European grassland sites, found that grasslands have the potential to offset a significant proportion of global emissions of greenhouse gases as a result of livestock grazing. These findings have significant implications for achieving carbon neutrality and carbon peaking. Altogether, integrating grassland grazing into existing livestock farming systems in China will undoubtedly meet the increasing human demand for high-quality foods and valuable ecosystem services.Despite the potential positive contributions to humans, grassland-based ruminant farming systems in China still face severe problems, such as low production output , greenhouse gas emissions caused by ruminants due to low-quality forage feeding , and grassland degradation caused by overgrazing . We determined that the key reason for the emergence of these problems lies in the lack of knowledge and techniques for integration of nutrition manipulation and grazing manipulation. In grassland grazing systems, herbivore foraging behaviors are a central feature in the animaleplant interface . Herbivore foraging selection can directly influence plant community composition and diversity by changing competition among plants, affecting grassland ecological processes and ecosystem functions. Simultaneously, foraging selections of livestock under grazing conditions directly determine the nutrient supply resulting from grazing and forage resources, hydroponic dutch buckets which are essential for nutrition management decisions.

Therefore, accurately determining the diet selection of grazing ruminants relative to available herbage is necessary for future developments of these techniques. However, complex variables create significant challenges for accurately predicting the foraging selection behaviors of ruminants under grazing conditions, making predictions extremely difficult. The challenges we explore are not exhaustive but are focused on key factors in developing sustainable grassland-based ruminant farming systems.Animals may selectively adjust their dietary composition according to their individual experiences, nutritional status, and physiological status. Previous studies have shown that ruminants tend to choose specific plants and plant parts when grazing . Decisions about what to eat are based on expected rewards and previous experiences, affecting an animal’s food preferences . In utero and early life experiences of livestock may alter food preferences through elusive epigenetic effects that drive the voluntary forage intake of animals later in life . For instance, Chadwick et al. found that lambs exposed to salt bush in utero grew faster and handled greater salt loads than lambs born from ewes grazed on mono-cultures of introduced grasses. Wiedmeier et al. demonstrated that cattle exposed to high-fiber forages early in life showed higher nitrogen retention and greater abilities to digest fiber during adulthood than cattle reared on low-fiber diets. Available evidence has also suggested that ruminants selectively balance their diet according to their nutritional requirements. For instance, grazing ruminants maximize their energy intake through selective feeding on forages, during a day , or within a specific feeding schedule . Mineral-deficient cattle and sheep have been observed eating soil, licking urine patches, eating fecal matter, or eating dead rabbits, whereas animals without mineral deficiencies may sniff or lick these items but rarely consume them . Furthermore, ruminants may selectively feed based on their satiety and changing physiological needs, such as growth, lactation, pregnancy, parturition, and weaning .

Herbivores selectively consume individual plants based on their chemical composition, determined by secondary compounds, nutritional ingredients, and flavor substances. Typically, herbivores prefer to feed on plants containing only modest amounts of secondary metabolites. In small quantities, these compounds reduce bloating and improve protein utilization, immune responses, resistance to gastrointestinal nematodes, and reproductive efficiency . However, excessive volumes of secondary metabolites in grassland plant species limit the forage chosen for ingestion by grazing livestock. For example, goats selectively reduce their intake of forages with a greater composition of secondary compounds such as tannins . Lambs choose to reduce meal size and increase meal intervals when their diet is high in terpenes . Animals generally forage based on flavor profiles and nutrient content, especially when consuming different components of available plant anatomy . The spatial distribution of plant populations, plant species richness, and spatial relationships among different plant species in natural grasslands affect livestock foraging behaviors. Specifically, sheep increased consumption of high-preference species when low-preference species followed a clumped distribution rather than a random distribution . High plant species richness enhanced the frequency that animals switched diets and weakened the ability of herbivores to choose food, increasing foraging costs and interfering with the herbivore’s choice of foraging . Herbivores consumed the largest number of palatable plants when 3 plants species were segregated into 3 patches independent of each other. In contrast, the total forage intake of herbivores for all plant species was reduced when the 3 species were homogenously distributed through patches in a spatially equal neighbor relationship .

Local environments can influence dietary selections by grazing livestock. Extensive studies with pen-fed ruminants have shown that the ambient temperature affects feeding willingness ; however, very little empirical data is available describing the mechanisms affecting herbage intake in grazing ruminants under variable temperature management. Nonetheless, the physiological consequences of heat or cold stress may be similar for ruminants under housing or grazing. In beef cattle, feed intake increased at temperatures from  15 to 28  C but decreased at temperatures above 28  C . For grazing ruminants, behavioral responses amplified the effects of temperature stress on herbage intake under heat and cold stress . Studies examining the relationship between temperature stress and foraging willingness have primarily exhibited inconsistent results. Adams et al. observed significant reductions in the herbage intake of grazing cattle under acute cold stress, whereas Beverlin et al. found only minor changes in herbage intake for cows experiencing changing temperatures . Due to the inconsistent results, whether or not temperature stress affects forage intake in grazing ruminants remains ambiguous. The most relevant measurements to date are also relatively short-term, making it difficult to make recommendations on adjusting intake predictions. The effects of ambient temperature on forage intake may also be amplified by other environmental factors, like wind or precipitation conditions. For instance, wind velocity exacerbated the effects of low temperatures on grazing ruminants during winter but could help alleviate heat stress in summer . Previous studies also reported that rainfall events temporarily reduced the intake of grazing cattle by 10% to 30%, decreasing the cattle’s average daily gain . In addition, terrain plays a principal role in the forage selection of grazing livestock . When examining geographic and environmental factors affecting livestock feeding behaviors, cattle tended to avoid foraging on pastures with slopes greater than 10% inclines during grazing trials, and the number of grazing animals decreased as the slope increased. On slopes with a greater than 60% incline, almost no animals were found foraging . The location of water sources and social behaviors also affected foraging selection by grazing livestock .In addition to variable environmental factors, grazing regimes established by managers are also vital components of estimating forage intake in grazing animals.

Kitessa and Nicol found that cattle continuously co-grazed with sheep showed a lower herbage intake than those rotationally co-grazed with sheep. Perez-Ramirez et al. demonstrated that decreased grazing time of dairy cows strongly increased the pasture intake rate and decreased the foraging selectivity relative to available herbage. Congruently, dairy cows were more motivated to forage when receiving a low-supplement feeding regime. Furthermore, Savian et al. found that the sheep undergoing rotatinuous stocking exhibited an increase in daily herbage intake and improved bite rates compared to those under traditional rational stocking management, suggesting that rotatinuous stocking maximized the herbage intake and optimized the grazing time of sheep. Nevertheless, the factors influencing livestock dietary selections are also constantly changing ,bato bucket as grazing animals are foraging in a dynamic world. Herbage production, grassland community composition, and plant chemical composition fluctuate considerably in response to changing environmental and climatic conditions . This perspective has been supported by a longitudinal study of arid rangelands . Over the 37-year study period, herbage production varied annually between 4% and 307% of the median value. Simultaneously, temporalespatial variations in the herbage’s chemical composition, richness, evenness, and biomass led to heterogeneity. As a result of grazing, preferred plants and specific parts of the plant’s anatomy are removed from the landscape over time, leading to continuous changes in the plant community composition within pasture environments . The complex influencing factors, combined with continuously changing grassland herbage resources , make foraging selections of grazing ruminants extraordinarily complex and unpredictable.In the future, continued research is necessary to clarify and explore the mechanisms underlying foraging behavior, thereby helping us better predict grazing ruminants’ diet selection. Farmers, landowners, and livestock managers have an obligation to embrace vital agricultural and technological advances and establish new nutritional assessment methods for grazing ruminants. Implementation of nutritional intake assessments based on foraging selection behaviors assessment will allow stabilization and increased production in livestock agribusiness. Consequently, our knowledge regarding the nutritional requirements of grazing ruminants requires greater refinement. Many additional elements have been identified to affect the nutritional requirements of grazed ruminants , so knowledge gleaned from animals kept indoors cannot be extrapolated to ruminants in outdoor pasture environments. Further data collection and longitudinal studies are necessary to build mechanistic models of the nutritional requirements of grazing ruminants in terms of energy, protein, minerals, vitamins, and water. Continued research should focus on the critical factors controlling grassland ecological and productive functions.

Biodiversity has been identified as the primary determinant of grassland ecosystem services and functions . Experimental studies have shown that the stability and functionality of grassland ecosystems require high plant species diversity and multi-trophic species diversity for co-regulation like that of below ground soil microbial diversity and above ground community diversity . Improving grassland biodiversity by systematically managing grazing practices is critical for grassland ecological service advancement. Therefore, future studies should target identifying mechanisms of grassland biodiversity maintenance and grazing regulations on grassland biodiversity, offering a scientifically reproducible basis for guiding grazing manipulation practices . It has long been recognized within livestock production practices that rumen microbial communities play an essential role in improving ruminant production and health. The rumen microbiome, consisting of bacteria, protozoa, fungi, archaea, and viruses, composes a sophisticated symbiotic network essential to the maintenance, immune function, and overall production efficiency of the host ruminants . Digestion performed by the rumen microbial community accounts for up to 70% of the total dietary energy in ruminants. The symbiotic metabolic operation between a ruminant host and the rumen microbiome results in many end products critical to other biological processes, including developing the rumen epithelium and establishing the immune system . Ergo, improving our understanding of rumen microbial ecology in grazing ruminants promotes enhanced animal production efficiencies. Considering nutritional manipulation for grazing livestock should also be a management option to optimize rumen microbial communities. Ultimately, this in-depth examination of livestock grazing management and nutritional practices aims to provide a blueprint for developing sustainable, grassland-based ruminant farming systems by integrating animal behavior analysis, animal nutrition principles, and grassland ecology, to achieve “winewin” outcomes for grassland ecological/ecosystem functions and livestock production policies .

The three-level model is justified when variances at the first second and third level are significantly greater than zero

We used the t-distribution with to calculate the 95% CI for the overall mean effects . We used the Restricted Maximum-Likelihood method for estimating all model parameters because it is more efficient and presents less bias when calculating heterogeneity . For abundance and species richness data, we examined the suitability of conducting the three-level meta-analysis compared to the two level model using one-sided log-likelihood-ratio tests for the variance at the second and third levels separately.In addition to the heterogeneity parameters tested by the model, we quantified the proportion of the observed variance for each of the three levels , I2 , I2 using the formulas provided in Cheung . The application of moderator analyses is justified when the I2is low compared to the total variance . We applied univariate meta-regression procedures to examine whether the functional groups , and landscape composition , heterogeneity , and configuration metrics moderated the effect of farming systems on biodiversity. Landscape configuration , was categorised for capturing differences at smaller and larger ranges beyond the 1 km threshold. An omnibus test based on the F-distribution was used to evaluate whether there were significant differences in effect sizes across the values of each moderator . We also examined if the influence of each landscape metric on the estimated effect size were the same across the six functional groups, by including the interaction between functional groups and each landscape metric as a moderator in the meta-regression models. To facilitate the interpretation of the results, we reported the mean effect sizes and their CI as percentages changes by back-transforming the log response ratios and converting them to percentages − 1.

A mean effect size > 0 indicates biodiversity was positively impacted by diversified farming, whereas a mean effect size < 0 indicates biodiversity was negatively impacted by diversified farming. A mean effect size equal to zero indicates little or no difference between diversified and simplified systems. We applied multivariate models to check which variables continued significantly moderating the overall effect when controlling for other variables hydroponic grow table. The inclusion of highly collinear moderators in the same model, however, may lead to problems of overfitting or spurious results . We tested for multicollinearity between moderators by computing the Cramer’s V correlation between categorical variables, Spearman correlation between continuous variables, and Kruskal-Wallis H test between categorical and continuous variables. We considered moderators as presenting severe collinearity between each other when Cramer’s V or Spearman correlation were ≥ 0.7 or Kruskal-Wallis H tests were significant . We constructed separated multivariate models for abundance and species richness by adding all non-collinear moderators found to be significant predictors during the univariate models. We ignored collinearity between functional groups and the landscape metrics, since they are conceptually very different . We used omnibus tests to compare the significance of each moderator that had been found to be significant in the univariate models. Finally, we used multi-model inference to check the model fit statistics of each applied model based on the corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion . We used the AICc as our selection method because it is considered to be less biased and selects models that are much closer to the truth . We found significant interaction effects between functional groups abundance and the landscape metrics . The positive impact of diversified farming systems on decomposers abundance increased with the increment of the percentage of natural habitats, land cover diversity, and when plots were near and very far away from natural habitats . The impact of diversified farming systems on natural enemies’ abundance were significantly positive in farming plots located near and moderately near to natural habitats.

Contrastingly, the abundance of pests was significantly reduced in diversified farming systems located very close or moderately near to natural habitats, and in landscape with high land cover diversity. The abundance of pollinators was significantly higher in diversified farming systems located moderately far and very far away from natural habitats, and in agricultural landscape with high land cover diversity. The omnibus tests from the multivariate models applied for abundance showed that functional groups and the interaction between Functional groups and Euclidean min-distance to natural or semi-natural habitats remained significant moderators . However, the interaction effects between Functional groups and Percentage of natural habitat, and Functional groups and Land cover Shannon’s diversity index were no longer significant when including Functional groups in the models.This meta-analysis showed that, on average, diversified farming systems improves the richness and abundance of non-domesticated taxa with potential benefits for local and global biodiversity and food production goals. The magnitude of the overall effect varies with functional group and landscape complexity, heterogeneity and composition. Similar to Lichtenberg et al. , our study showed that agricultural diversification substantially increased species richness, and had a non-significant positive effect on abundance. This may reflect that farming diversification helps support a wider range of species, probably as more diverse habitat and resources open up . However, diversification may limit simultaneously individual species dominance reducing the population numbers for some species . For example, our results show that while the abundance of beneficial functional groups tended to have positive effect sizes, pest populations significantly decreased in diversified systems and therefore reduced the overall mean effect size for abundance. The variable effects of diversified farming systems across functional groups supports the notion that different species respond to biotic interactions and abiotic conditions according to their functional traits . The negative effect of diversified farming systems on pest abundance may be related to higher predation and parasitism rates in diversified farming systems , due to synergistic effects between species . Indeed we found a higher richness of natural enemies in diversified systems, consistent with several previous meta-analyses . Our study extends on previous work by including pest plants and our findings suggest the pest control benefits of diversified farming systems extend to weed suppression.

Crop and farm diversification may be an effective weed management strategy helping to reduce the need for herbicide inputs . Our synthesis demonstrated pollinator richness and abundance benefited from diversified farming practices, consistent with previous quantitative syntheses . The positive effect of diversified farming systems on the concentration of pollinator species might lead to a greater provision of pollination services with benefits to crop yields . Ensuring pollinator abundance may be more important than richness for provision of pollination services since pollination in agroecosystems might be mostly delivered by a few abundant and widespread species of insects rather than rare pollinator species . Nevertheless, a high redundancy of pollinators can help ensure community stability and function provision against unexpected changes . Agroecosystem resilience is associated with high diversity of organisms responsible for maintaining soil structure and nutrients cycling . Conversely to previous studies that indicated local management had little effect on decomposers , our results – including a wider range of taxa – demonstrated that diversified farming systems substantially increased decomposer abundance. This may be because diversified farming systems have a higher concentration of soil organic matter, benefiting soil biota . Effects on decomposers may also be associated with changes in autotrophs identified in this study, since a higher richness of autotrophs can supply more diverse resources which may enhance the decomposer community . Simpler landscape configurations enhanced the positive effect of diversified farming systems on the overall biodiversity richness in our study, specifically when natural habitats were > 1000 m away or constituted ≈ < 60% of the surrounding 1 km radii area. Our results agree with the “intermediate landscape complexity hypothesis”, which stablish the positive effect of local-conservation practices might be higher in agricultural plots located in simple landscapes than in complex ones . This response may be because in landscapes with a lower proportion of natural habitats, diversified farming systems may offer more varied habitats and resources attracting a higher variety of organisms than monocultures . Hence, diversification strategies at the farm level should complement restoration approaches at the landscape scale  for promoting biodiversity, and softening productivity-ecosystem services trade-offs . Similar to prior observations , we found some interaction effects between functional groups diversity and the surrounding landscape characteristics. Our synthesis showed the importance of farming diversification at increasing pollinators abundance and richness in highly simplified and heterogeneous landscapes. Farm-scale diversification strategies might counter the direct negative impact of the absence of surrounding natural or semi-natural habitats on pollinators number and diversity, and therefore,flood tray enhance pollination service provision .

Natural and semi-natural habitats close to farming plots might be important to sustain populations of predators which benefit from the resources offered by natural habitats as well as by adjacent crops . This may also explain the reduction in pest abundance in diversified farms close to natural and semi-natural habitats, where predators were more abundant helping limit infestations . Moreover, our results showed the positive effects of diversified farming systems on decomposer abundance tend to increase with landscape complexity, primarily the proportion of surrounding natural habitats and landscape heterogeneity, but also with the distance from natural and semi-natural habitats. These results suggest the colonisation of soil biota may depend on the surrounding landscape and organisms’ dispersal abilities . However, decomposer richness seems to be independent of landscape patterns , and more influenced by local characteristics such as soil type, climate, plant diversity, and temperature . On the other hand, autotrophs responded positively to farming system diversification as landscape complexity increased, which may reflect that higher landscape complexity facilitates seed pool dispersal and establishment . Besides, most of the autotrophs’ data came from the comparison effect of simplified and agroforestry systems, suggesting the establishment and development of non-crop plants also could be promoted by the lower herbicide input or soil disturbance practices that characterised these diversified systems . Results from the multivariate models revealed the robustness of the unique moderating effect of functional groups, and the interaction between landscape configuration and functional groups, on abundance. However, the interaction between landscape composition and heterogeneity with functional groups were no longer significant when accounting for other variables in the same model. These results may be because landscape composition and heterogeneity interact with functional groups in determining effect sizes, but functional group has a stronger effect on its own. For species richness, none of the non-collinear predictors with significant moderating effects within the univariate models remained significant when included together in the same model. The reduction in the significance of these variables may be related to the lower number of effect sizes in the species richness database , which leads to small class sizes when multiple variables are combined in a single model. When the sample size is small, multivariate models may be statistically less powerful than univariate models . While our results show that functional group, and distance to and proportion of natural and semi-natural habitat, moderate the effect of diversified farming on species richness, future research to expand the number of effect sizes in the richness database as new studies emerge would be valuable to confirm which moderators have the strongest influence. The sensitivity and publication bias analysis, in addition to the prepublication of the review protocol and the meta-data , guarantee the transparency and reproducibility of our meta-analysis . While sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of our overall findings for abundance, we identified some changes in the significance of the species richness results when excluding the effect size outliers and with a high risk of bias from the analyses. The exclusion of one highly influential effect size reduced the significance of the overall farming systems impact on species richness by widening its confidence interval. However, the significance of the overall species richness results was not affected by the exclusion of 175 effect sizes with a high risk of bias. Hence, this last finding may ensure the robustness of our overall results for species richness. On the other hand, the reduction in significance of positive effect of diversified systems on pollinators species richness may be related to the exclusion of almost 40% of the effect sizes. Moreover, we identified possible sources of publication bias that may reduce the generalisation of our conclusions.

The background of the farmers invited to participate in the survey varied widely across the countries

Today, unlike the original gantry systems where one set of uncropped pathways received the same amount of traffic, a CTF managed field may have different pathways, some cropped and some uncropped, receiving different levels of traffic depending on the implement working widths, but all in multiples of the narrowest machine working width. CTF can also be viewed and implemented differently in different regions and/or across different farming groups with ‘seasonal CTF’ for example deploying a CTF system after primary cultivation until the end of that season or until the harvesting operation. The essence of CTF is to eliminate soil compaction within the cropped area, improve tractive efficiency on the permanent tracks, and thereby improve crop yield and economic return. Setting a CTF system on a farm is often made over years during which the machines being replaced are chosen, or they are modified, to match the CTF system chosen. Mainly a base working width has to be chosen . Fertilization and crop protection is often made at widths of 2, 3 or 4 times the primary working width. While CTF originally in Australia aimed to have the track width of all equipment the same, today in Europe it is often accepted that this is expensive, inconvenient and not suitable for road transport. Consequently a wider track width for combines is accepted. Besides, wider tyres are deployed to reduce the impact of traffic as all other traffic paths are cropped . Researchers have attempted to assess the economic and environmental benefits of CTF using field experiments. From a case study for a multi-cut grass silage system in Scotland, UK, Hargreaves et al. documented that introducing CTF provides a net economic return derived from increased yields due to a reduction in compaction and sward damage.

Antille et al. provided a review of the effects/implications of CTF systems on overall soil health, crop performance and yield,mobile vertical farm fertilizer and water use efficiency, and greenhouse gas emissions. As early as 1986, energy savings of approximately 50% were reported from CTF use in the Netherlands . In Denmark, Gasso et al. presented the significant potential for CTF to reduce environmental impacts through reduced greenhouse gas emissions in intensively managed arable cropping systems with at least 20% reduction in direct emissions from field operations. Based on a 10 year field experiment from Loess Plateau in China, Bai et al. indicated that CTF increased mean wheat yield by 11.2%. Drawing from a case study on an Australian sugar cane farm, Halpin et al. concluded that a farming system with precision CTF and minimum tillage is more profitable than traditional practice. Using whole farm modelling in Australian dryland agriculture, Kingwell, Fuchsbichler reported that CTF would increase profit by 50% mainly through its beneficial effect on yield and crop quality. Hussein et al. reported 30% increase in sorghum yield due to CTF. Studies from Denmark and the UK showed that CTF enables a considerable reduction in headland area and input use and claimed that the overall benefits would be higher if CTF was integrated with other precision farming techniques . CTF also provides other benefits such as minimizing soil runoff, economizing on input use from reduced overlaps, providing reduced operator stress with auto-steering and reducing soil-emissions . Tullberg documented that by restricting compaction to narrow and permanent wheel tracks, CTF contributes to reducing nitrous oxide emissions which are higher in compacted soils. Tullberg et al. concluded that CTF can bring about 30–50% reduction in soil nitrous oxide and methane emissions. The benefits can potentially be higher when CTF is combined with reduced tillage or no-tillage systems and assisted by precision agriculture technologies . While CTF is considered to provide multifaceted benefits as summarized above, there are also potential drawbacks associated with it. The main drawback is the investment required in suitable width matched machinery and the associated auto-steering technology. Driving patterns must be controlled, which can have implications for field efficiency in service vehicles like grain trailers or slurry tankers which must follow the pathways rather than turning to exit the field by the shortest distance when their load cycle is complete .

CTF is compatible with EU soil protection laws and regulations aimed at preventing soil compaction. While soil is compacted in the permanent track area 70–80% of the farm area is not compacted by field traffic where CTF is deployed . Low soil disturbance minimum tillage or no-till is more easily deployed with CTF as the soil is not subjected to traffic induced compaction. While the permanent tracks will be compacted, negative effects are limited to a small area and are more than compensated for by the lack of random traffic and intensive soil cultivation in the larger field area . While experimental evidence suggests multiple benefits from CTF, its use on commercial farms is limited for various reasons such as the high cost of machinery modification ; the perception that CTF is not for small farms ; and the lack of demonstrated benefits under local conditions. Moreover, CTF demands a change of mindset towards prioritizing soil health, careful route planning and making decisions with a long-term perspective and in a holistic manner. In Europe, soil compaction is already recognized as a threat . However, CTF remains a niche activity. In the literature, the benefits of CTF in terms of yield improvement, soil health, input-use efficiency and environmental benefits are frequently reported. However, literature on the perceptions/views, knowledge and concerns relating to CTF and its adoption, of current, and of potential, CTF using farmers, is lacking. This study intends to fill part of this gap by analyzing data from a survey of farmers, as part of adoption studies in two ICT-AGRI European projects: CTF-OptiMove and PAMCoBA . The primary objective is to assess and understand farmers’ perceptions about CTF and related technologies; what limits them from using the technology and how they think it could be improved. The study also seeks to identify intervention approaches, relevant stakeholders, and their roles for the future development of CTF. The data used in this study is from a cross sectional survey collected from January to April 2018 from 8 European countries using the network of the project participants to secure participants.The survey was a structured questionnaire administered online using the SurveyXact platform . An overview of the survey data is provided in Thomsen et al. . All 263 members of the CTF Europe association which includes farmers, advisors, machinery companies and others with an interest in CTF farming systems, were invited to participate.

CTF Europe member farmers generally operate larger farm sizes than average in their countries. In the Netherlands, the survey was distributed to 63 farmers, 3 were from the list in CTF Europe and the rest were members of a farmers’ association in the Hoeksche Waard district who cooperated in earlier projects on in-field traffic. Compared to other regions in the Netherlands, HW member farmers are considered more advanced and early adopters. In Belgium, the survey was distributed to approximately 2200 farmers using the sprayer inspection customer database for Flanders, administered by the Research Institute for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food . In Ireland, the survey was distributed to 140 farmers with active email addresses from the total membership of 200 of the Irish Tillage and Land Use Society . ILTUS members tend to be the larger growers in the country with between 100 and 800 ha per farm. A total of 103 valid survey responses were received and used in this study. The survey data included demographic attributes of the respondents , farm size, machinery ownership, tillage type, concern about soil damage due to heavy machinery and remedial measures, mode of farm ownership, perception/expectation about longterm benefits from using Precision Farming & GNSS and, use of CTF practices. Survey participants who considered themselves as ‘CTF-users’ were asked technical, experience and expectation related questions relating to their use of CTF. The survey questionnaire contained an introduction section giving background information about soil compaction and CTF. The conceptual definition of CTF provided in the introduction section was: “Controlled Traffic Farmingis a production and management system that requires the repeated use of the same wheel track for every operation, and for all vehicles and implements to have a particular span corresponding to the base wheel track”. In this study, ’CTF user’ denotes farmers’ own perception of their CTF use as responded to the question “Do you use CTF” . Two issues must be considered when analyzing the survey data. Firstly, the low response rate may introduce a selection bias, i.e., those farmers with prior experience with CTF technology and early adopters of mechanization technologies may have participated at a higher rate than those operating small farms and/or not considering CTF. Secondly, there is heterogeneity in sampling across countries in the survey. Members of CTF Europe already have awareness of and are interested in CTF.

The respondents from Ireland were members of a soil and tillage association that had participated in previous workshop events concerning soil compaction prevention, though not specifically CTF. However, the sample from Belgium is quite different because the criterion was owning a sprayer and only included the Flanders region with relatively small farm sizes. The study used a descriptive approach to present farmers’ perceptions, experiences, expectations, challenges and needs regarding CTF. Numerical data was summarized using percentages, cross-tabulations, vertical farming racks and histograms. Responses to open-ended questions were summarized and explained under thematic headings. Where it was considered useful, data was disaggregated by country and/or CTFuse category. Owing to the small sample size and sampling heterogeneity across the countries surveyed, the use of statistical analysis methods was limited. To assess the presence of statistically significant differences in mean farm size between CTF-user and non-user groups, a T-test was performed. 3. Results 3.1. Sample distribution, farm size and production type by country The distribution of survey respondents, farm size and production type is presented by country in Table 1. Most of the respondents were from Belgium, Ireland, the UK and the Netherlands. In terms of proportion of CTF-users, the UK sample ranks first followed by Ireland and Belgium . Because of their very small representation, samples from Germany, France, Canada and Sweden are grouped together as ’Others’. In Table 1 summary statistics for total farm size and the percentage of farm area where CTF is applied is presented . There is a wide difference in farm size across countries. Categorizing farm area into large , medium and small shows that nearly 86% of respondents from Belgium operate small farms in contrast to none for the UK sample. The majority of the respondents from Ireland and the Netherlands lie in the medium farm size category. Farm sizes are larger for the Danish and UK sample with 75% and 65% respectively greater than 500 ha. The percentage of farm area under CTF operations also differs across countries. The sample from Belgium is the lowest both in terms of farm size and the proportion under CTF practice. The UK sample features the highest values both in farm size and percentage area under CTF and this data is also from 14 CTF user farms, which is a much larger sample than from the other countries. As shown in Table 2, there appears to be considerable difference in the type of crop/animal production respondents are involved in . For the aggregate sample, 82% of respondents said to produce one or more cereal crops, 40% onion, 37% perennial crops and 31% beet with the least proportion involved in pig production. Note that a respondent could engage in more than one type of crop and/ or animal production. Cereal production is the most common for the sampled farmers with the vast majority reported to have produced one or more cereal crops . In UK and Ireland, all sampled farmers produce cereal crops. Pig production is the least common with only 50%, 16% and 6% of the samples from Denmark, Belgium and UK respectively involved in it.

Private restaurants and canteens and the public sector only accounted for a very small share of the sales

The respondents were asked to select the two most important reasons for the conversion from a predefined list of 13 options ; one option also enabled an open response. The reasons listed in the question were obtained from previous studies and surveys. The marketing channels question addressed how their organic produce sales were divided into seven categories of channels : direct marketing, sales to primary production, sales to the processing sector, sales to the retail and wholesale trade, sales to private kitchens, sales to the public sector, and other channels. In addition, they were asked to provide their sales distribution divided as shares in their own region , the rest of Finland, and abroad. The results of the survey highlighted economic and environmental factors as significant drivers for converting from conventional to organic farming. The most important reason given by the farmers was smaller production costs leading to better viability, with 36% selecting this as their first option. The second most popular reason was ecology or sustainability, with 19% of farmers selecting this as their primary motivation. These two options were highlighted as significant in every region. Other reasons that were also frequently mentioned were healthiness and cleanness, a better price for their produce, subsidies, and the farm’s production already approximating organic farming practices. In addition, the survey revealed a wide variety of other reasons, from principles and ideology to specialisation and an interest in organic production. As anticipated, the results varied between the regions. One significant difference related to the importance of subsidies in the decision to convert from conventional to organic farming . Over 40% of the organic farmers in Kainuu stated that subsidies were among the two most important reasons for their farm conversion. In contrast, none of farmers from Satakunta selected this as an important option. It is interesting to note that Kainuu had the highest organic share and Satakunta had the lowest organic share. Indeed,roll bench the four regions where subsidies were given the highest importance were among the regions with the highest organic shares.

The development or availability of markets for organic products is also an important factor affecting farmers’ conversion decisions . The use of a broad range of marketing channels in a particular region indicates diverse demand and better sales opportunities. The results of the survey showed considerable variation in the utilised marketing channels . One of the regions used all seven categories, and in most of the regions, farmers sold their products to five or six of the marketing channels. The share of sales to the processing industry varied between 20% and 57%; primary production sales were between 25% and 57%; and direct sales varied between 0% and 20%. The proportion of sales to the retail and wholesale trade was the highest in Southwest Finland and the lowest in North Ostrobothnia.Other smaller markets included, for example, sales to abattoirs and sales through food collectives. According to the survey, the majority of the sales took place within the producer’s own region, 66% on average. In order to reveal regional differences in market concentration, the market concentration index was calculated for all the regions. A higher share was associated with more concentrated organic farmers’ markets in a region. The results also revealed that the least concentrated markets were located in some southern regions, such as Southwest Finland, H¨ ame, and Uusimaa . In contrast, the highest concentrations were found in Western Finland . For most of the conditions , we used the national average level to establish the position of demarcation between 0.33 and 0.67. This was a natural cut-off point to highlight cases below and above the average, as the studied cases covered all the mainland Finnish regions. The values 0.33 and 0.67 concern equal value ranges from the average national level. These value ranges were formed statistically: values of 0.67–1 and 0–0.33 were divided so that averages above or below 0.5 served as devisors. A value of 1 indicates that it is closest to the theory explaining the regional differences in organic farming. Fuzzy-set scores were set to the outcome and to all of the selected conditions in every case . The data indicated that a total of three regions have a clearly high organic share , while four are slightly above the average , four are slightly below the average , and the remaining four are clearly below the average .

The necessity analysis revealed that none of these conditions are necessary for a high organic share of total cultivated land when using a score of 0.90 as a consistency threshold for a necessary condition, a method similar to Marks et al. . Overall, the necessity analysis scores for consistency varied from 0.55 to 0.80 , with the highest scores associated with sectors as well as subsidies and the smallest markets. Our conceptual approach implies that different factors impact different regions; therefore, even the lowest score conditions were included in the sufficiency analysis. Table 5 presents the pathway results of the sufficiency analysis. The results showed three different pathways and covered five of the seven regions with a high organic share. None of the conditions are present in every pathway leading to a high organic share, which confirms that none of the conditions are necessary for a high organic share. The most common pathway to a high proportion of organic farming includes a long organic heritage, a concentration on dairy farming, and a region that places a high importance on subsidies. Pathway 1 represents the three highest organic shares in Finland . Pathway 2 differs from the first pathway in only one factor. Instead of a long heritage, it includes a larger farm size. Pathway 2 covers two regions, North Ostrobothnia and North Karelia. Pathway 3 is represented by one region . In pathway 3, a long organic heritage and larger farms and markets enable the high organic share. These pathways do not apply to two Finnish regions with higher organic shares, Pirkanmaa and Southeast Finland. In our results, consistency scores for all pathways are over the recommended 0.8. In two of the pathways, the consistency score is 1.00. The coverage scores are highest in pathways 1 and 2 . In the third pathway, the coverage score is 0.15. The solution score of 0.89 for solution consistency is over the threshold score of 0.75. Thus, the results can be considered sufficient to establish a set-theoretical relation. The solution score for coverage is 0.80, indicating that the three pathways apply to 80% of Finnish regions with an above-average organic share. The analyses for the low share organic farming regions confirmed the logic of the results for regions with a high organic share. One of the most common pathways to a low organic share was the mirror image of pathway 1: a lack of an organic heritage, a concentration on cereals production, and a low value placed on subsidies.

Overall, the analysis for the low organic regions revealed three different pathways with a solution coverage of 0.88 and a solution consistency of 0.88. These solutions cover all low organic regions as well as some high organic share regions. Thus, the absence of the selected conditions clearly reveals why some regions have a low proportion of organic land. This study reveals new knowledge about the regional differences in the share of organic cultivated land in mainland Finland. This kind of knowledge is needed to achieve the targets to increase organic farming and further promote rural development and a sustainability transition . In addition, our results are similar to those of Cairns et al. , as we show that QCA can be a valuable method for theory-testing regional studies that focus on complex entities. Our findings confirm the assertion of Ilbery et al. that the regional concentration of organic farming is explained by a combination of different factors rather than a single factor. However, our results suggest that the categorisation by Ilbery et al. should be supplemented with clear economic factors, such as the importance of subsidies, to improve coverage of the possible causes of regional concentrations in organic farming. The importance of subsidies has been highlighted in earlier studies ; however, previous research focused on farmers’ general decision-making rather than addressing the connection with regional differences. The location of farms in different Finnish regions affects their economic opportunities, and therefore the role of economic aid can vary. Our findings highlight the importance of economic aspects and align with the results of Lehtim¨ aki and Virtanen on the economisation of organic agriculture in Finland, at least to some extent. A close review of the data reveals that different types of regions utilise different pathways to achieve a high share of organic cultivated land. There are significant regional differences in cultivation conditions in Finland; therefore it is logical that the key factors involved in a high organic land share vary. Pathway 1 applies to the regions in Eastern Finland with the three highest shares of organic farming . This pathway confirms the results of Pietola and Lansik concerning low yields and subsidies, although the authors did not consider relevant educational or development programmes in the earlier decades of organic farming. Our findings suggest that a long organic heritage is one of the key factors affecting regional concentrations of organic farming, commercial greenhouse supplies a result also noted by Ilbery et al. . In comparison to other regions, a long regional organic heritage can represent an early social acceptance and learning from regional organic education actors or neighbours.

As L¨ ahdesm¨ aki et al. concluded, social acceptance is a key factor in achieving sustainability goals. In addition, increased knowledge helps to make the decision about the conversion . The absence of markets in this path may be due to the focus on dairy farming in these regions; dairy farming markets are often national rather than regional and rather concentrated. Although markets can still be important in these regions, they are not particularly versatile and may not be located locally. Overall, pathway 1 covers all the subsystems described in the food system conceptualization by Helenius et al. : socioeconomic subsystems , people as actors/decision-makers , and biophysical subsystems . Despite initially relating to the food system more generally, these three subsystems or categories seem to offer an apt categorisation of the different factors that are connected to the variation in regional organic farming. Pathway 2 describes the relevant factors in Northern Finland and also in one eastern Finnish region . The fact that both the first and second pathways apply to North Karelia reinforces its position as the region with the highest share of organic farming in Finland. In turn, pathway 3 illustrates the situation in Southern Finland , where markets seem to play an important, albeit not singular, role in the development of a high organic share. Our finding that markets are a significant factor aligns with the conclusions of several previous studies . The present study confirms several previous findings regarding the conditions in the regions with a high proportion of organic land. For example, as in other countries , lower agro-ecological conditions seem to play an important role in characterising the regions with the highest organic shares in Finland. However, agro-ecological conditions alone are insufficient to explain the high shares in these regions; instead, it appears to be the result of a combination of several conditions, as noted by Ilbery et al. . In addition, while markets seem to be important, market diversity and close proximity seem to be more relevant in regions that focus on cereals production. Moreover, the absence of these conditions seems to illustrate why some regions have a low share of organic land. Even though the unique characteristics of different countries and regions suggest that the pathways for Finland are not necessarily universally applicable, it is likely that similar factors and especially a combination of several conditions also affect regional differences and the share of organic land in areas outside Finland, particularly in middle-income and high-income countries.

The artificial planting recommended by GGP is collectively referred to as retired cropland in China

Arid and semi-arid climatic conditions, low precipitation, poor soils, and overly intensive land use all pose the Land Use/Land Cover Change frequently change in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China and leading the complex landscape structure in this area . The farming-pastoral ecotone of north China is a transitional zone of China’s two biological communities: traditional pastoral and agricultural areas and is a valuable environmental security barrier zone , while Inner Mongolia is the central part of it. Due to its important ecological function, the LUCC in Inner Mongolia has received much attention for a long time, especially the land use types with valuable ecological service function like natural grassland, woodland and retired cropland which formulated by the “Grain for Green” program . GGP is by far the largest ecological restoration scheme and rural development program globally . GGP recommended the cropland has lower average grain yields to adopt artificial woodland, shrubbery since launched in Inner Mongolia in 2000 . GGP has accelerated the changes in land use in the ecological transition zone in the past 20 years, especially the changes in cropland use , and many studies have shown the strong ties between LUCC and GGP in Inner Mongolia since it has been in place to reduce deforestation, promote forest gain, and relieve human pressure on land through converting cropland to artificial planting with higher ecological service function.GGP has converted the cropland into artificial forest or woodland in southern China. At the same time, in the farming-pastoral ecotone in the northern foot of the Yinshan Mountains, due to the harsh ecological environment, shrub plants that are resistant to drought, cold and barrenness, were planted during the last two decades and have been shown a shrubland belt with distinctive characteristics . In addition, the complexity of cropland in the farming-pastoral ecotone in the northern foot of the Yinshan Mountains is not only reflected in the cropland-retired cropland conversation, but also there is a large amount of fallow and abandoned field in the preponement cropland, low round pots which can cause a range of social, economic, and environmental issues .

It has been 20 years since GGP started to be implemented in the northern farming-pastoral ecotone. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the effect of such ecological restoration project in ecologically fragile areas and the resulting land use changes. Using remote sensing data to map the cropland use change accurately is fundamental for evaluating ecosystem functions/services, policy formulation and implementation of agriculture in the ecological transition zone . Satellite remote sensing data have become an essential source of information for quantifying and better understanding environmental change, particularly monitoring vegetation dynamics from regional to global scale . Some studies have analyzed the vegetation dynamics changes in Inner Mongolia using long time series remote sensing data. For example, Hu and Nacun identified land use patterns and land cover change in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2015 using long-term remote sensing data. The result showed that the land use changes dramatically in Inner Mongolia and woodland increased the most. Also, they pointed out that most of the increased cropland was converted from grassland before 2000; the increased grassland area and improved vegetation coverage were the main land use process from 2000 to 2015. Li et al. used MODIS and Landsat dataset to map the land cover in Inner Mongolia in 2000 and 2014; according to their research, 35.3% of cropland converted to grassland, which the ecological restoration program could cause. Liu et al. found that grassland to cropland conversion and cropland retired as woodland or grassland co-occurred in the central farming-pastoral part of Inner Mongolia, while the grassland area generally decreased during 2000 to 2005. The conversion between cropland, grassland and cropland retirement in Inner Mongolia is highlighted in these studies. Other studies have treated the retired cropland as a separate land use type, and monitored and analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution of the retired cropland in Inner Mongolia. For example, Yin et al. used medium-resolution MODIS data to monitor the temporal and spatial changes of forest loss, forest gain and cropland retirement in Inner Mongolia from 2001 to 2014 when during the ecology restoration program implementation period. The results of this study showed that Inner Mongolia exhibited 1.32% of cropland-to-grassland conversions; besides, they pointed out that 0.29% of cropland has been converted to forest. However, the study did not note that the landscape of retired cropland is very different from forest and grassland in the farming-pastoral zone in central Inner Mongolia.

Other existent approaches which reported the retired cropland face insufficient to meet large-scale monitoring needs. The monitoring results of the previous county-scale or cityscale studies about the retired cropland in the farmingpastoral ecotone in the northern foot of Yinshan Mountains were revised by visual interpretation based on the supervision classification to achieve higher accuracy. Although the method mentioned above can interpret the land surface object and achieve good classification accuracy, but it is time-consuming and labor-intensive. It tends to show more prominent artificial interference. Therefore, it does not have the advantage of being promoted in a large area. These studies reported the presence of abandoned and fallow cropland at the northern foot of the Yinshan Mountains as well. Moreover, many non-cropped fields, including the fallow and abandonment, can easily misidentify with cropped and retired cropland and surrounding ecosystems using multi-spectral remote sensing images due to their natural regeneration . Hence, due to the complex and changeable cropland using types in the study area, remote sensing monitoring of land use in the farming-pastoral ecotone at the northern foot of the Yinshan Mountains has certain difficulties. However, there is a lack of research on monitoring retired cropland in a large area using high resolution remote sensing images. In recent years, remote sensing monitoring methods of land use change have evolved from local to the cloud computing platform and have continuously optimized and improved . Traditional data processing methods based on local software need to go through cumbersome steps such as data collection, data management, data preprocessing, and algorithm operation, which take up many local computing resources. The running time is often in days. In recent years, Google Earth Engine platform, which has gradually attracted attention, is a powerful platform for the analysis and presentation of “Remote Sensing Big Data” . Many classification methods are available for remote sensing image classification and have been ported to GEE. The Random Forest classifier is most widely used in LUCC monitoring because the Random Forest classifier can successfully handle high data dimensionality and multicollinearity with high classification accuracy both fast and insensitive to over-fitting . Therefore, GEE has an irreplaceable advantage in the long-term remote sensing classification of land use in a large area. Our research needs to process the long-term remote sensing data to identify the spatiotemporal change of cropland and the vegetation dynamics on a regional scale. GEE can well meet the needs of this research. We chose the northern foot of the Yinshan Mountains, located in the middle of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China, as the study area. In this study, we 1. employed a long-time series of Landsat archives and Random Forest classifier on the GEE to identify the cropland and retired cropland accurately for the four time notes; 2. adopted the Land Use Change Trajectory method to indicate the spatiotemporal characteristics of cropland and retired cropland change trajectories; 3. used a long-term vegetation index to reveal the relationship between vegetation dynamics and land use change in the study area and illustrate the GGP’ impact on the vegetation coverage.

The farming-pastoral ecotone in the northern foot of the Yinshan Mountains in Inner Mongolia is one of China’s three ecologically fragile zones . This area mainly distributes in northern arid and semi-arid grassland areas with annual precipitation of 300–450 mm and dryness of 1.0–2.0. The ecological environment’s fragility is expressed as arid climate, water resources shortage, loose soil structure, low vegetation coverage, and susceptibility to solid influences from wind erosion, water erosion, and human activities. Important ecosystem types of the farming-pastoral ecotone in the northern foot of the Yinshan Mountains include desert grassland, forest, sandy land, cropland, etc. Furthermore, ecological fragility and poverty are the two most prominent problems in this region, and the socio-economic development of this area is seriously affected by land degradation. Moreover, poor ecological conditions and the loss of a large amount of labor are the main reasons for the cropland instability that can cause the disorderly fallow, even cropland abandonment. Therefore, this phenomenon has seriously threatened agricultural production safety and has also become a representative and sensitive area for regional agricultural ecological security research . The farming-pastoral ecotone in the northern foot of the Yinshan Mountains contains 11 counties with a total area of 96,767km2 and spans nearly 730 km from east to west, with an average elevation of 1600 m. It presents a landform pattern dominated by low mountains and hills and wavy plateaus with less precipitation, heavy wind, a short frost-free period, and insufficient heat. Such climatic conditions have a significant impact on local agricultural development. On the other way, grassland pastoral areas mainly distribute in the northern part of the study area. In contrast, arid farming areas are mainly distributed in the southern part of the study area, as shown in Fig. 1.NDVI was calculated based on the normalized difference between the red and near-infrared bands; NDWI was calculated based on the normalized difference between the near infrared and green bands; NDISI was calculated based on the normalized difference between the thermal infrared , red, near-infrared bands and shortwave infrared 2. There is no middle infrared band in both Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-8 OLI images so that we used the shortwave infrared 2 band with the wavelength closest to the middle infrared wavelength to replace the MIR in formula . In this study, the separability of land use classes in the farming-pastoral ecotone in terms of spectral characteristics and index characteristics were discussed.We found that when the cropland contains both active cropland and non-active cropland , the separability among nonactive cropland, retired cropland, plastic pots 30 liters and natural grassland on the spectral bands and indices are weak . After the natural grassland is cultivated, the surface texture characteristics will be significantly changed to be substantially different from the natural grassland.

The retired cropland in the study area is mainly sparse shrubs, which is also different from cropland and natural grassland in texture. Therefore, we assume that texture metrics have the most significant contribution to identifying complex cropland uses. Texture metrics can provide valuable spatial information, reflecting the spatial distribution of the gray levels of remote sensing images and representing the spatial relationship between image features and the surrounding environment . Whether it is on the photograph, aerial photos, or satellite images, the texture is essential for identifying objects or regions of interest. GEE provides the GLCM gray level co-occurrence matrix function to calculate texture metrics. GLCM texture metrics have broad applicability and can be utilized in various image classification applications. Many studies have used texture features for land use classification . In this study, the 14 GLCM indicators proposed by Haralick et al. and 4 other indicators proposed by Conners et al. were used to construct texture metrics set. We modeled band-based texture metrics sets based on the Blue, Green, Red, NIR, SWIR1, SWIR2 of the Landsat5-TM TOA images. On the other hand, we only applied texture information based on the panchromatic band of Landsat-8 OLI TOA images. Comparing with the multi-spectral bands with a 30-meter resolution, the panchromatic band with a 15-meter resolution can provide more detailed texture information. The classification metrics were selected to construct a metrics set to recognize the cropland and the retired cropland in 1990, 2001, 2010, and 2019. The metrics set includes spectral metrics, index metrics, texture metrics, and terrain data . A reducer computes the specified percentiles was quoted to assemble time series data into multi-band image for machine learning classification on the GEE. After that, the texture metrics, elevation, and slope bands were added to the classification imagery.