Evolutionary responses can be predicted from the breeder’s equation, but this requires extensive long-term population data. For species that can be stored in a dormant state, such as plants, it is possible to contrast ancestral and descendent genotypes grown under common conditions, and Franks et al. were able to demonstrate evolution to earlier flowering in Brassica using stored seeds. Seedbanks and other collections that hold propagules, intentionally or incidentally, could thus provide important data for exploring evolutionary responses and testing whether species might be approaching limits in their adaptive responses. Sequencing of archived tissue of plants and animals already allows for the signature of selection to be sought directly in their DNA. New collections could systematically sample seeds through time or across populations, providing the potential to resurrect past populations and examine micro-evolutionary change. Evolutionary insights from herbarium specimens might be particularly useful for adapting agricultural practices with global change. Alongside the insights that collections data can provide on ecological and impacts of global change in natural systems, herbaria are additionally repositories of crop wild relatives . CWR are important sources of phenotypic and genetic information on pest and disease resistance that may be introgressed into crops. For example, comparative analyses of CWR might provide an opportunity to identify herbivore-resistance traits relevant to agricultural and ornamental species, such as glandular trichomes that act as physical defences against insects and can be detected on herbarium specimens with a microscope.
In addition, 30 planter pot herbivore damage on CWR herbarium specimens might help predict increases in pest pressure on crops, because closely related host species tend to be vulnerable to similar suites of pests and pathogens. Specimens in herbaria can also serve as records of past biotic threats and inform how we can avoid these threats in the future. For example, Yoshida et al. sequenced the genomes of Phytophthora infestans, the cause of potato late blight, infamous for its role in the Irish Potato Famine, from herbarium collections of infected potatoes and tomatoes. Using genomic tools, they found one strain of P. infestans linked to the potato blight in the nineteenth century, but that multiple strains moved globally in the twentieth century. Specimens may also offer insights into more recent effects of global change on crop species. In a recent study, we quantified historical insect damage on a crop species, the lowbush blueberry, Vaccinium angustifolium, growing in the wild to determine how pest pressure has changed with recent climate change. The low bush blueberry is an ecologically and economically important endemic species in northeastern North America, whose production has seen recent increases owing to awareness of the health benefits of blueberries. Collection records from the Harvard University Herbaria suggest that herbivore damage has increased in recent years, with evidence that increased herbivory is a result of winter climate warming. This highlights the need for increased monitoring of herbivore species on V. angustifolium and allows the development of proactive pest management practices that could be implemented before economic impacts are felt.Given the millions of plants and insect specimens that are becoming available online, it will increasingly be possible to assess changes in phenological synchrony, distributions, and occurrence over time across diverse taxa and large spatial areas.
The sampling of species within museums and herbaria, however, is non-random and often sparse, which can present distinct challenges depending on the response variable of interest and how robust the data are for answering particular questions. However, the depth of sampling within natural history collections is difficult to assess because natural history collections data are often dark—without searchable databases—despite efforts to rapidly digitize. Another obstacle is that data associated with museum specimens can have large uncertainty; for example, specimens collected before the advent of geographical information system technology often have only coarse scale location data that may prohibit local-scale analyses. When assessing phenological change, the most important challenges arise because of biases in collecting. Herbarium specimens are more likely to be collected near roads; rare species are, perhaps unsurprisingly, collected less frequently, and collections are more likely to be made in spring or summer months. Such biases can make specimen data difficult to work with. For example, roads might be warmer than the surrounding countryside, and observations of shifts in phenology through time might, in part, also reflect the increasing extent of the road network. Finally, sampling frequency may bias estimates of first events, because we are more likely to observe earlier events with greater sampling intensity. Such sampling biases can make it difficult to compare across species when sampling effort varies, for example, between common and rare species. New methods offer a solution to such challenges. For example, methods have been established for calibrating species distribution models according to known biases in presence-only data, and newly constructed statistical models allow robust estimates of the tail of a distribution—in the context of phenology, first flower, for example—even when sampling is uneven.
Shifting collection practices may also introduce biases. Herbivory measurements derived from herbarium specimens are probably underestimates in most cases because collectors try to avoid collecting damaged specimens. Even so, herbivory is prevalent on specimens and matches patterns derived from theory and observations from living plants. Importantly, biases introduced by collectors are not necessarily problematic if they do not vary across axes of interest. For example, if collectors are equally likely to collect relatively undamaged specimens across latitude, herbarium specimens might still provide insights into how herbivory varies with latitude. When there are concerns that collecting practices may have influenced observations—for example, perhaps collectors are more or less likely to collect damaged specimens over time—collector identity may be added to statistical models to partially control for such biases. A unique challenge to using herbarium specimens is that they are eaten by a suite of insects within museums. For plants, chewing herbivory created indoors, after a plant was collected, can be confused with damage created while plants were alive. We developed protocols that allowed us to reliably discriminate chewing damage created pre- and post- collection described in. Such approaches, however, require careful examination of specimens with a microscope and entomological knowledge to recognize diagnostic features of damage to plants, which is a barrier to large scale, rapid scoring of chewing damage on digitized specimens. Other types of insect damage, such as leaf mines, skeletonization and galls, are almost never a product of insects eating plants within museums, and might be scored more reliably, although their prevalence is lower.We have previously argued that herbaria should be repositioned as hubs for ecological research, and we provided suggestions for how to manage collections to promote ecological research on global change. Because the vast majority of research in collections has historically been on taxonomy and systematics, collections are rarely faced with providing data for ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Stronger relationships between researchers in the field, collections managers, and digital data providers would help ecologists to better address the challenging ecological questions of global change, and, importantly, could also increase funding opportunities for maintaining and building natural history collections, which are often under-funded and threatened by institutional priorities. Here, we provide three suggestions for how natural history collections and ecologists can work together to support global change research on species interactions. First, it would be helpful to detail the sampling protocol used to collect specimens. In many cases, collecting practices are haphazard, but if, for example, a curator collects a specimen expressly to document a gall, plastic growers pots this would change the inferences we can make from this specimen . Second, ecologists could engage with curators in projects that involve resampling areas and taxa that have long historical records, ideally at the same time of year and with the same research effort involved in previous collections. Third, specimens are most useful when researchers can associate collections with important predictor variables representing species traits or abiotic data related to global change. New opportunities exist to link specimens to the published literature and trait databases , BIEN as well as non-traditional data sources, such as written records and historical photographs. The better integration of new bio-informatics tools and digital databases within biological collections will help transition museums and herbaria into ecological data centres.Human-altered landscapes are expanding globally and are often associated with declining natural habitat, non-native species, fragmentation, and transformations in structure, inputs, climate, and connectivity.
These changes collectively have resulted in shifts in both spatial distributions and species diversity across many taxa including birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, invertebrates, and plants. One common driver of global change is urbanization, which in the extreme is associated with a reduction in biodiversity compared to habitats in their more natural state. However, in moderately urbanized areas, the effects of urban impacts on species distribution and diversity can vary greatly and depends on region, type of change, and taxonomic group, among other factors. Documenting the effects of urbanization compared to natural communities has proven problematic, making predictions of community change associated with urbanization difficult. Human-altered landscapes are often associated with many non-native species which add to species diversity but also can obscure changes in community dynamics. Thus, to assess accurately the complex impacts of land use change on ecological communities, one must look beyond species richness to investigate ecological processes themselves. Ecological processes are the links between organisms in a functioning ecosystem, and are critical in understanding how altered biodiversity can lead to changes in ecosystem functioning. Global environmental change has been found to have a wide variety of impacts on ecological processes in different systems. Pollinator-plant relationships in particular are found to be particularly vulnerable to land use change, resulting in decreases in interaction strength and frequency. Pollination services are crucial ecosystem processes in natural systems, but also in agricultural and urban areas. Bees provide the majority of animal-mediated pollination services on which it is estimated 87.5% of flowering plants depend. The value of pollination in agriculture is estimated at $200 billion worldwide , largely due to many foods that are essential for food security and a healthy human diet, including numerous fruits, vegetables, and nuts that require bee pollination. As urban areas expand, there has been increasing interest in urban agriculture to ensure food security and access to healthy foods for growing populations, and these systems also depend on pollination. For example, Kollin estimated that the economic value of urban fruit trees to be worth $10 million annually in San Jose, California. Despite the important role of pollinators and concerns about bee declines, there remain many uncertainties regarding the impact of land use change on pollinators. Urbanization has resulted in more interfaces with both natural and agricultural landscapes, creating new transitional zones of peri-urbanization. While there has been extensive pollinator research in agricultural and natural systems, less attention has focused on pollination in neighboring urban areas and how the changing landscape has impacted pollination. In addition, very few studies of urban areas have looked beyond changes in bee diversity to understand explicitly the effect of urbanization on pollinator-plant interactions . Here, we investigate the effect of land use change on pollinatorplant ecosystem processes. We make use of a ‘‘natural experimental design’’ in which urban, agricultural, and natural areas intersect. Bees visit flowers for both pollen and nectar resources, and floral visitation is a commonly used as an index of pollination services. However, depending on the flower, certain bee groups are much more effective pollinators than others. Thus, while visitation is important, it alone does not definitively indicate whether pollination services were received by the plant. When pollen is limited by other factors, consequences for plant fitness can include failure to set seed, production of smaller fruits, and even complete lack of reproduction. By looking at rates of bee visitation and comparing this with other measures of plant fitness, such as seed set, we can develop a more complete understanding of how shifts in bee distributions between areas that differ in land use are impacting pollination services. To study the impact of changing land use on pollinator-plant interactions, we focus on bee pollination of a widespread plant, yellow starthistle , a common weed found in natural, agricultural, and urban habitats. Using standardized observations of floral visitation and seed set measurements of yellow starthistle, we test the hypotheses that increasing urbanization decreases 1) rates of bee visitation, 2) viable seed set, and 3) the efficiency of pollination .